海上边际油田油气工程方案优化设计-油气井工程专业论文.docxVIP

海上边际油田油气工程方案优化设计 海上边际油田油气工程方案优化设计 李昊(油气井工程) 指导教师：孙宝江教授 摘要 通过系统调研国内外海上边际油田开发现状和国内外经济评价领域 的成果，对海上边际油田经济评价方法作了详细的叙述，归纳出了海上 边际油田油气工程方案的经济技术特征及海上边际油田开发费用构成； 结合我国海上边际油田开发特点，提出了海上边际油用经济评价的步骤 和程序；结合我国海上边际油田开发的具体实际，建立了海上边际油阳 经济评价模型，该模型以净现值模型为基础，结合投资回收期模型、内 部收益率模型，构建了海上边际油田油气工程方案经济评价的理论基础： 以项目净现值模型为基础，运用蒙特卡洛模拟技术建立了对项目经济评 价指标进行风险分析的随机净现值模型；编制海上边际油罔经济评价和 风险分析软件，对渤海BZ34-3边际油罔三种油气工程方案进行经济分析 和风险分析，并得到结论：(1)在三种工程模式中，第一种I程模式获 得的经济效益最为明显，即采用井口平台通过海底管线将生产出来的原 油外输到BZ34-1中心平台进行处理的方式：(2)对BZ34—3油田进行不 确定分析后，得到影响海上边际油E同油气工程方案投资收益的主要因素 是油气工程投资、原油价格和原油产量；(3)通过对BZ34—3油田第一种 方案进行蒙特卡洛风险模拟。得到该工程模式净现值大于零的概率是 70％，因此判断该工程模式抵御风险的能力较强。 关键词：海上边际油田，优化，经济评价，风险分析，蒙持卡洛模拟 Study Study on Optimization in the OilGas Project Phnnmg of Offshore Marginal Oilfield LI Hao(oilGas Well Engineering) DirectedbyProfessorSUNBao-jiang Abstraet By investigating the actuality of the oilgas project planning of offshore marginal oilfield and the methods of economic Evaluation and risk assessment，this thesis concludes the economical and technological characters and the cost composing of the offshore marginal oilfield．nlis thesis brings forward the process and procedure of economic evaluation and risk assessment of offshore marginal oilfield development．This thesis builds the economic evaluation model．Basing on the economic evaluation model the Risk assessment model has been built with the technology of Monte Carlo simulation．The economic evaluation and risk assessment software system has been programmed．Three oilgas project planning modes about BZ34—3 marginal oil field are evaluated by the software and three concludes are given：(1)Among the three modes，the first mode which use one two—slot platform and pipeline connect with the BZ34一l center platform oilfield is the best one；(2)After uncertainty analyse to the BZ34—3 oilfield，the main uncertain factor is the price of oil．the investment of oilgas project and the crude oil output；(31 With the Monte Carlo simulation for the first mode of BZ34—3 oilfield，a．high anti·risk capabi