荆州冬小麦产量动态预报方法对比研究-中国气象局图书馆.PDF

气象科技 进展 荆州市冬小麦产量动态预报方法对比研究 1, 2 3 1, 4 艾劲松 孙雨轩 刘凯文 （1 江汉平原生态气象遥感监测技术协同创新中心，荆州 434025；2 荆州市气象局，荆州 434020； 3 长江大学资源与环境学院，荆州 434025；4 荆州农业气象试验站，荆州 434025） 摘要：利用湖北省荆州市1970—2016年日照、降水、温度及冬小麦生长期、产量数据，采用作物丰歉指数、气候适宜 指数方法，开展了荆州市冬小麦产量动态预报，并对两种预报方法的效果进行检验。结果表明，丰歉指数方法的预报准 确率高于气候适宜指数法，计算过程也相对简单。在产量预报精度不下降的前提下，4月10日可作为产量预报的最优预 报日期。 关键词：冬小麦，丰歉指数，气候适宜指数，产量预报 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.05.004 Comparison of Winter Wheat Output Forecast Methods in Jingzhou 1, 2 3 1, 4 Ai Jinsong , Sun Yuxuan , Liu Kaiwen (1 Collaborative Innovation Center of Remote Sensing Technology in Ecological and Meteorological Monitoring in the Jianghan Plain, Jingzhou 434025 2 Jingzhou Meteorological Bureau, Jingzhou 434020 3 College of Resources and Environment, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025 4 Jingzhou Agrometeorological Trial Station, Jingzhou 434025) Abstract: The data for sunshine duration, precipitation, daily temperature, development stage and yield of winter wheat between 1970 and 2016 in Jingzhou were used in this research for establishing an output forecast method. A meteorological influence index and a climatic suitability index were tested to compare the forecast accuracy. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the meteorological influence index method was higher than the climatic suitability index, and its calculation is relatively simple. Under the premise that the prediction accuracy is relatively stable, the optimal date for winter wheat harvest is April 10th in Jingzhou, according to the model forecast. Keywords: winter wheat, meteorological influence index, climatic suitability