技术生态视角下技术范式转换预见理论与方法研究-工商管理；企业管理专业论文.docxVIP

要意义。本研究最后总结了研究结论及相关启示，完善了技术范式转换预见体系，并指出研 要意义。 本研究最后总结了研究结论及相关启示，完善了技术范式转换预见体系，并指出研 究不足及对未来的展望。本文不仅丰富了技术范式及技术生态理论，也为企业及区域决 策者进行技术范式预见工作提供了有价值的理论参考。 关键词：技术范式转换：技术生态；技术预见；方法 Il 万方数据 ABSTRACTSPECIALIZATION：垒盘墼型蝤塑韪趔 ABSTRACT SPECIALIZATION：垒盘墼型蝤塑韪趔 M．A．CANDIDATE：LIU Dan A series of technological paradigm transformation phenomenon OCCURS frequently,such as Kodak’S bankruptcy with digital imaging technology,Nokia’S decline with smart phones and Microsoft”a dominant”position’S wobble with Android system．It shows that”ant toppled elephant”is not only a reality,but also an increasingly common．In this context，if the dominant firms c趾foresee the new technological paradigm，and that identify and cultivate disruptive technology,it could be a hehn of new technological paradigm and the leader of the industries．However，the present qualitative technology foresight methods based on linear thinking are still difficult to solve the problem of technological paradigm transformation wi也 lligh complexity．As an auxiliary tool for the qualitative methods，scientometrics methods can overcome the shortcomings of qualitative methods that are too subjective in a certain extent， but the results are still needed to be recognized by the experts，then it can be adopted． Therefore，the Foresight work of technological paradigm transformation should be established in mastering the essence of new technologies producing and the mechanism of technological paradigm transformation． This study introduces the perspective of technology ecology to explain the technological paradigm transformation，and demonstrates its rationality and advancement．According to complexity of”technological paradigm”ecology,the study considers to establish a mixed model(according to the different stages of research,combing the quantitative and qualitative research path)to solve the problem of technological paradigm transformation．The mixed model should be based on identifying the characteristics of technological paradigm transformation． 1