黄土滑坡时间预报研究-理科、自然地理学专业论文.docx

驴D3叠293sP(叠2．上2 驴D3叠293s P(叠2．上2 f，9争』．7蹬黄土滑坡时间预报研究 摘 要 本文在全面、系统归纳总结有关黄土滑坡时间预报研究的国内 外动态的基础上，针对我国黄土高原所发生滑坡特征，提出了广义概 念上的滑坡分类，即坡体型滑坡和坡基型滑坡。总结了滑坡的分布规 律，形态特征、变形特征及成因机制。通过大量实际滑坡分析预报的 实践，提出了黄土滑坡时间预报参数的合理选择和数值标准。基于黄 土滑坡的演变特点和规律及其演化过程中的各种信息，探讨了黄土 滑坡中期、短期和临滑预报的原理和方法，提出时间预报的新方法和 新途径，即宏观迹象综合分析预报的模糊数学方法，滑坡形变分析的 数学逼近法以及临滑预报的非线性统计法和灰色理论法等。以甘肃 省永靖县黑方台黄茨大滑坡为例，对本文提出的各种方法逐一进行 检验，结果表明：各种方法预报结果与实际下滑时间一致，从而说明 本文提出的各种方法在实用中可行可靠，定量化程度较高。 关键词：黄土滑坡，时间预报，变形分析，黄茨滑坡 THE THE STUDY ON OCCURING TIME FORECAST oF LOESS LANDSLIDE Abstract On the basis of the comprehensive and systematic induction and summary about dynamic state of time forecast related to loess land- slide，the author puts forward landslide classif!ication in general conception，namely slope—block type and slope—bed type，in view of the feature of landslide which happened on Loess Plateau． Meanwhile it is summarized for the distribution law，morphological feature，deformation feature and origin mechanism of landslides．By means of plenty of practice connected with landslide analysis fore— cast，it is also submitted for numerical standard and rational choice of the parameter which it deals with the principles and methods of loess landslide time forecast in mid—term，short—term and critical sliding，on account of the evolational characteristics and law．Fur- thermore，some new ways and methods of time forecast，including fuzzy mathematical method of macroscopic phenemna synthetic analysis forecast，mathematical approching method of landslide de- formation analysis，as well as nonlinear staristics method and grey theory of interim landslide forecast，are disccussed． Take such a huge landslide in Heifangtai，YongJing County， Gansu Province as an exemple，various methods mentioned above are examined．As a result，it indicates that every torecasting method ig in accordance with the real slip time·Thus it proves that all the methods in the paper are practical and reliable·That is to say,the degree of quantitative determination is fairly high· K ew words：loes