论文：应急战略规划模型研究 Strategic Contingency Planning Model.doc

PAGE PAGE iii ABSTRACT STRATEGIC CONTINGENCY PLANNING By Karen Scott-Martinet Fall 2006 The objective of this study was to develop a strategic contingency planning model to be used to fully incorporate emergency management and business continuity into organization structures. (For the purpose of this study, Emergency Management and Business Continuity were collectively referred to as “contingency planning.”) Presently, contingency planning is mainly done on an operational or tactical level. Current thinking suggests that contingency planning should be an active part of organizations’ overall strategic planning processes as well. Organizations will ultimately be better prepared for future disasters and crises. STRATEGIC CONTINGENCY PLANNING A THESIS Presented to the Professional Studies Department California State University, Long Beach In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science in Emergency Services Administration By Karen Scott-Martinet B.A., 1994, University of Hawaii, West Oahu Fall 2006  Copyright 2006 Karen Scott-Martinet ALL RIGHTS RESERVED  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose of this Study 2 Significance of this Study 3 Approach 4 Limitations 4 Definitions of Key Terms 5 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE 10 Emergency Management 12 Business Continuity Planning 21 Strategic Planning 31 Scenario Futuring 34 Summary 39 3. PLANNING METHODOLOGIES 41 Emergency Management 41 Business Continuity 47 Strategic Planning 51 Scenario Futuring 55 Summary 63 4. NEW MODEL 65 The Strategic Contingency Plan 65 Finding the Gaps 67 The Wider View 69 The Business Case 70 Implementation and Metrics 72 Summary 73  5. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION 74 Recommendations 74 Conclusion 75 Summary 76 APPENDICES 77 A. SAMPLE FUTURE SCENARIOS 78 B. SAMPLE STRATEGIC EMERGENCY AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLAN 86 C. SAMPLE BASELINE ASSESSMENT P