风廓线雷达垂直速度与地面降雨关系研究以济南为例.docVIP

风廓线雷达垂直速度与地面降雨关系研 究：以济南为例 邱粲王栋成 李娟 曹洁董旭光 山东省气候中心 摘要： 基于风廓线雷达数据产品的垂直速度资料和地面气象观测站2014年分钟降雨记 录，采用多项式非线性拟合方法，探讨了各季节特征高度层垂直速度与地而降 雨之间的相关关系；并根据场次降雨过程的分钟数据分析了垂直速度阈值对降雨 开始、结束时间以及降雨强度的指示性。结果表明，垂直速度能够反映雨滴的下 落速度特征，综合各个高度层来看，700 m高度层垂直速度与小时雨量冋归方程 拟合优度较为稳定，其他高度层在不同季节拟合优度差别略大;垂直速度的大小 虽不能完全定量地预报降南强度，但对于整个过程的南强波动变化有着明显的 指示性作用，700 m高度层垂直速度对于降雨的预报指示效果最为稳定。垂直速 度对降水的指示性可用于灾害性天气，如暴雨、冰雹、降雪等的预警及临近预报, 其阈值的确定受降水相态、降水类型、气温、湿度、湍流等影响，且并非唯一指 标。 关键词： 风廓线雷达;垂直速度;拟合; 作者简介：邱粲(1982—)，女，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事气候变化评估与 应用研究，qcqyw@hotmai 1. com。 收稿日期：2017-09-30 基金：山东省气象局科研项目(2014SDQXZ05) Study on the relationship between vertical velocity of wind profiler and rainfall: A case in Jinan QIU Can WANG Dongcheng LI Juan CAO Jie DONG Xuguang Shandong Provincial Climate Centre; Abstract： Based on the vertical velocity data of wind profiler and the minute level precipi tation data of AWS in 2014, the relationship bet wee n the vertical vclocity and the ground rainfall is discussed by using the polynomial nonlinear fitting method. The minute level data of both vertical velocity and precipitation of rainfall events shows that the vertical velocity threshold is a good clue for rainfall start, end time and rainfall intensi ty. The resul ts show that vertical veloci ty can reflect the fal 1 ing velocity charactcristics of the raindrops. According to the emalysis on each layer, the goodness-of-fit of the rainfall and the vertical velocity regression equation at the height of 700 m is the most stable, and the other layers have different goodness-of-fit in each season. Although the value of the vertical velocity cannot predict rainfal 1 intensity quantitativcly， it can be used as an obvious indication for the fluctuation of rainfall intensity through the entire process. The vertical velocity at 700 m level is the most stable indicator for rainfall forecast. The indication of vertical velocity for precipitation can be used for early warning and nowcasting of severe weather, such as heavy rain， hail, snowfall. The vertical vclocit