毕业论文--毒气泄漏事故应急疏散决策优化模型研究.docVIP

毕业论文（设计） 题目 毒气泄漏事故应急疏散决策优化模型研究 学 号 姓 名 系 队 专 业 指导教师 二○○八年六月 本科毕业论文（设计） PAGE III 摘 要 随着有毒化学品种类和数量的不断增加，有毒化学品的泄漏事故频发。重特大毒气泄漏事故扩散范围广、危害区域大，易造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失。为了避免毒气对人员造成的伤害，必须对处于危险区域的人员进行紧急疏散。如何快速的确定疏散范围，确定应急疏散的人员数量，使应急疏散的成本最低是一线指挥人员急需解决的重要问题。本文在经验数据、高斯烟团扩散模型模拟的基础上，计算毒气泄漏扩散影响区域，确定了应急疏散范围；讨论了可通行性疏散路线的选择和疏散路线的当量长度的概念，建立了基于各区域危险系数的疏散路线当量长度的计算模型，采用运筹学中的动态规划法求解最佳疏散路径；然后运用运筹学中的线性规划法建立最优疏散模型，利用Lingo优化软件求解该模型，并以液氯钢瓶泄漏事故为例，对其影响范围内的人员进行了疏散，确定应急疏散的最佳方案。经实例验证表明：当有毒气体发生泄漏时，采用该法，可以为一线指挥人员准确、快速地确定疏散区域和选择最佳疏散路径提供科学依据，为一线指挥人员最优疏散方案决策提供理论指导。 关键词 毒气泄漏； 应急疏散； 优化模型； 线性规划法； Lingo Abstract With the increasing of the type and quantity of the toxic chemicals, the toxic chemicals leakage accidents are also growing year by year, particularly the leakage accident of the toxic gases. These accidents has not only created large zones of dangerous diffusion region, but also caused heavy casualties and property losses. If the leakage accident of the toxic gases occurs, in order to avoids and reduces the injuries and deaths, we should take an emergency evacuation. To reduce the emergency evacuation costs to the lowest. It’s an important problem that the front line commanders should solve: How to confirm the evacuation region and how many people should be evacuated. This paper is based on the experiential data and the analog of Gaussian diffusion model, calculates the poisonous region and the emergency evacuation regions. Then, the selection of the feasibility of the evacuation route and the concept of the evacuation routes’ equivalent length are discussed. Later, a calculation model that the evacuation routes’ equivalent length based on the risk factors of the emergency zones is established. It adopts the dynamic programming of operations research to find out the best evacuation route, and uses the linear programming of operations research to establish the best evacuation model., after that it utilizes Lingo Opt