基于贝叶斯网络的深基坑风险模糊综合评估方法.docxVIP

基于贝叶斯网络的深基坑风险模糊综合评估方法 周红波b2 (1.上海市建筑科学研究院(集团)有限公司，上海200032； 2.上海建科建设监理咨询有限公司，上海200032) 摘要：提出了基于贝叶斯网络的深基坑风险模糊综合评估方法，以初步统计的深基坑工程质量 安全事故数据为基础，采用贝叶斯网络进行风险事件发牛概率的线性推理，并结合所建立的模糊 综合评判模型进行深基坑风险评估，通过评估得到深基坑工程的总体风险等级以及每个风险事件 的等级。结果表明，上海市轨道交通深基坑工程的总体风险等级为3级，其屮，支撑失稳和支撑 荷载超标事件的风险等级为4级，地墙渗漏、坑内土体滑坡、承压水突涌、机械伤人等风险事件 的等级为3级，这与上海市轨道交通深基坑工程的风险水平现状相一致，从而验证了本评估方法 的适用性和合理性。本方法评估结果可为深基坑工程施工风险预防和控制提供参考依据。 关键词：深基坑；风险评估；贝叶斯网络；模糊综合评判；隶属函数 中图分类号：TD853.34 文献标识码：A Risk Assessment of Deep Foundation Pit by Using FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation Method Based on Bayesian Networks ZHOU Hong-bo12 (1. Shanghai Research Institute of Building Sciences, Shanghai 200032, China; 2. Shanghai Jianke Project Management Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200032, China) Abstract: A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on Bayesian Networks was proposed? Moreover, a simple accident database of deep foundation pits was established, which could provide the probability of basic events and the distribution of risk consequence? Through linear deduction of Bayesian Networks, the probability of every risk event was calculated? Then the consequence of every risk event was calculated by using fuzzy analysis method through the statistical consequence distribution and weight coefficient of risk events from the database? Furthermore, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was advanced, and the risk rating of each risk event of deep foundation pit was assessed. The results show that the whole risk rating of the foundation pit is rating 3, in which the two risk events of strut collapse and overloads on the struts are rating 4, and the other events such as leakage of diaphragm wall, soil slide in the pit, confined water outburst, pit bottom upheaval and injuries by machines and so on are rating 3. The case study verifies the practicability and rationality of the risk assessment method? Therefore, the proposed risk assessment method could be applied in the risk precautions for deep foundation pit constructions. Key words: deep foundation p