瑞信-全球投资策略-股票：到2022年底上涨12%;回报大于风险-2021.8.25-41页.pdfVIP

25 August 202 1 Equity Research Global Global Equity Strategy Equities: 12% higher by end-22E; rewards outweigh risks Investment Strategy | Strategy We maintain our end-2021 target of 756 for the MSCI A C World and introduce an end-2022 Research Analysts target of 820, implying 12% potential upside from current levels. Our US equity strategists are targeting 5,000 for the S P 500 for end-2022. There are many risks – ISM peaking, fiscal drag, Andrew Garthwaite tapering, China tightening, Delta variant, close to record-high US net margins and P/ Es, credit 44 20 7883 6477 deteriorating – but there are six main reasons why we see the rewards outweighing the risks: andrew.garthwaite@ Monetary conditions: Even by the end of 20 22, we see monetary conditions remaining Robert Griffiths looser than at almost any point during the global financial crisis despite the output gap by 44 20 7883 8885 end-23 being the tightest in 20 years. Central bankers remain in reactive mode. robert.griffiths@ Equity risk premium: T he big surprise this year (to most) has been that real bond yields Mengyuan Yuan (T IPS yields) have stayed very low. T his in turn keeps the E R P high at 6 . 1% (versus a 44 20 7888 0368 mengyuan.yuan@ warranted E R P of 4 .1% ) and indicates c 10% potential upside even if nominal yields were to rise to 1.8% (which is the Credit Suisse house view). T he key driver of P/ E has been Asim Ali T IPS and high yield, whi