基于CGE模型的碳税征收对中国民航业的影响研究 .docxVIP

基于CGE模型的碳税征收对中国民航业的影响研究 摘要：相对于其他碳排放源，航空业是碳排放增长最快的行业，如果不对航空业碳排放加以控制，那么会抵消其他行业的碳减排成果，因此开展碳税征收对中国民航全行业开展的影响研究有着极为重要的意义。本文建立一个静态的AVICGE模型，模拟分析了不同碳税税率对民航业的碳排放量、客货运输量、航空耗油量和民航业宏观经济变量的影响；分析了不同的碳减排量对边际减排本钱和边际民航业GDP损失的变化趋势。研究说明：〔1〕随着碳税税率的增加，民航业减排率增加明显，减排量越来越大。相对碳排放量而言，碳税对民航业运输量的影响较小。〔2〕碳税征收对民航业社会经济变量存在影响。〔3〕碳排放边际影响分析结果说明：随着减排量上升，边际减排本钱增加，边际GDP损失逐渐提高。〔4〕研究说明：当民航业碳税税率处于110-170元/吨区间时，上述的碳减排量和碳减排变化率等曲线前后增速发生较大变化，反映出民航业最优碳税税率为110-170元/吨的区间。关键词：CGE模型碳税民航业社会核算矩阵TheimpactofcarbontaxlevyonChinascivilaviationindustrybasedonCGEmodelLiuHeng〔ChinaPetroleumandnaturalgasexplorationanddevelopmentcompany，Beijing100143〕Abstract：Carbonemissionsinaviationindustryisthefastestgrowingindustryamongthehuman-madesourcesofcarbonemissions.Itwasprovedbyotherstudythatthecarbonemissionsinaviationindustrywasgoingtooffsettheemissionreductionofotherindustrieswithoutcontrol.ThereforetheresearchingofimpactiononthedevelopmentofChinascivilaviationindustryisessentialforpreparationofcarbontaxofaviation.AstaticAVICGEmodelisestablishedtoayalysisimpactofdifferentcarbontaxrateontheaviationindustryscarbonemissions，passengerandfreighttrafficandaviationfuelconsumption，aswellascivilaviationindustrymacrosocio-economicvariableswereanalyzed.Upontheresultabove，theanalysisoftheeffectofdifferentcarbonemissionreductionsonmarginalabatementcostsandmarginallossesofGDPinaviationindustrywereconductedalso.Thefollowingconclusionswereachievedinthispaper：〔1〕Withtheincreaseoftherateofcarbontax，thecivilaviationindustryemissionsratewasincreasedsignificantly，theemissionreductionswasincreasedaccordingly.Comparedwithcarbonemissionsreduction，thecarbontaxhaslesseffectonthetrafficofaviationindustryintraffic.〔2〕Thecarbontaxhaseffectiveontheaviationindustrysocioeconomicvariables.〔3〕Theanalysisofmarginalimpactofcarbonemissionwereconcludedthat：Withtheriseofemissionreductions，themarginalabatementcostincreases，themarginallossofGDPgraduallyincreased，butthegrowthrategraduallydeclinedandendwithamaximumvalue.〔4〕Itissummarizedthat：thereasonablecarbontaxrat