IMF-贸易、就业和不平等（英）-2021.7.docxVIP

WP/21/178 Trade, Jobs, and Inequality by Kim Beaton, Valerie Cerra, and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. PAGE PAGE 10 ? 2021 Internationa l Moneta ry Fund WP/21/178 IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development and Western Hemisphere Department Trade, Jobs, and Inequality Prepared by Kim Beaton, Valerie Cerra, and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov 1 June 2021 IMF Working Papers IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Abstract This paper examines the impact of trade on employment, wages, and other outcomes across countries and explores the conditions and policies that help spread the gains from trade more evenly throughout the population. We exploit a large global firm-level dataset to examine the impact of import competition on employment, wages, and firm performance, as well as the firm, industry, and country factors that mitigate any negative impact of an import shock. In contrast to the results of some well-known single-country studies, we find limited adverse impact of import competition. In some countries and industries, import competition actually strengthens employment growth. In addition, import competition tends to improve average wages, investment, and firm profitability. Country characteristics, such as educational attainment, can also improve employment prospects in response to trade shocks. Finally, we find that firms experiencing greater import competition start with higher average wages; thus any relatively slower employment g