京津翼地区自然灾害社会脆弱性分析.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 19 京津翼地区自然灾害社会脆弱性分析 摘要：从社会经济和建筑环境2个层面构建自然灾害社会脆弱性评价指标体系，运用因子分析法对京津冀地区自然灾害社会脆弱性的分异特征、类型及影响因素进行了深入探讨。结果表明：京津冀地区自然灾害社会脆弱性呈现出明显的“西北高-东南低”格局；整体上，西北山区的灾害社会脆弱性程度最高，社会脆弱性程度较低地区主要集中分布于北京、天津和石家庄市的核心城区外围以及各地级市的中心城区；敏感性分析表明，本研究构建的灾害社会脆弱性评价指标体系及采用的评估方法具有较好的稳健性和可信度。 关键词：自然灾害；社会脆弱性；因子分析法；京津冀地区 Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China Abstract: Social vulnerability emphasizes the difference of the capacity to cope with natural hazards and the suffering of disaster losses within and between places. This article presents an initial study on the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (B-T-H) region in China. The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) method in Chinese cultural context. Thirty-nine variables adapted from SoVI were collected in two aspects, which are divided into two aspects, namely, socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability. Using factor analysis, seven factors were extracted from the variable set: the structure of social development, the level of economic and government financial, social justice and poverty, family structure, the intensity of space development, residential housing and transport, and building structure. Factor scores were summed to get the final SoVI scores and the most and least vulnerable study units were identified and mapped. The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area. The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city of the prefecture-level cities. Sensitivity analysis showed that the indictor system and evaluation method of the disaster social vulnerability has good robustness and reliability. The result shows that this method is useful tool to reveal which places with a high level of vulnerability, in other words, which area is more likely to face significant cha