金融危机下黄金价格波动的影响因素.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 16 金融危机下黄金价格波动的影响因素 摘要：2007年的金融危机席卷全球，自2007年8月，次贷危机和随后的金融危机开始席卷全球的金融机构。许多金融机构都关闭或破产，全球金融市场变得更加不稳定，投资者渐渐对目前的信用货币系统的稳定性失去了信心。黄金作为“天然货币”，其极强的避险属性使黄金成为了一个重要的非货币资产，并且成为了在资产配置中的重要组成部分，这也吸引了越来越多的投资者的关注，越来越多的人在投资中加大了黄金与相关的衍生产品的比重。黄金吸引了投资者在金融危机期间的极大关注。黄金干预引起金融泡沫，金融泡沫又是我们将要面临的金融危机以及经济发展的先导。黄金是以信用为基础的货币对应物，它与负债无关并且不会因同伙膨胀贬值，是中央银行主要管理对象-纸币的天然对应物。一方面，黄金是具有最佳性能的资产之一；另一方面，作为一个重要的指标，它能够用来衡量资产价格的全球风险溢价。而黄金价格波动是否存在规律，受到哪些宏观因素的影响就成为了众多投资者关注的问题。本研究旨在研究哪些宏观因素会对黄金价格的波动产生影响，以及如何影响。 关键词：金融危机，黄金，宏观因素 Factors of gold price during financial crisis Abstract:financial crisis started from 2007 has been sweeping the globe, since August 2007, the subprime crisis and the subsequent financial crisis began sweeping the global financial institutions. Many financial institutions are closed or bankrupt, global financial markets have become more volatile, as investors doubt the stability of the current credit money system. Gold as a natural currency, the super-sovereign hedging properties of gold has become an important non-monetary assets and asset allocation became an important part, which also attracted more and more attention from investors, more and more people and increase the proportion of gold-related derivatives in investment. Gold has attracted great attention of investors during the financial crisis. On the one hand, gold is one of the best performing assets; on the other hand, it is an important indicator to measure the global risk premium asset prices. The gold price volatility if there is law, by macroeconomic factors which influence has become a problem of many investors. This study was designed in which the gold price fluctuations in macroeconomic factors will have an impact study, and how it affects. Keywords: Financial crisis, Gold, Macro-factors( 一、引言 黄金作为一种特殊商品和传统的货币，被银行机构大量保存。越来越多的投资者采取黄金作为投资标的工具，特别是在金融危机期间。例如，ETF-SPDR机构拥有1000余吨黄金，这比许多央行还要多得多。而且，黄金还能通过推动风险溢价影响资产价格的贴现因素。因此，黄金能够对股市造成很大影响，包括债券市场，货币市场，商品市场。金融危机从美国开始这一点推动了黄金价格,但是抑制了高风险资产，比如股票。 但是，黄金不是一个好的投资项目，它的行情保持几十年不变，与此同