人口年龄结构对人民币实际汇率影响的实证研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 23 人口年龄结构对人民币实际汇率影响的实证研究 摘要 实际汇率是国际金融的重点，实际汇率变动问题是金融学研究的主要课题之一。早期学者们重点关注影响汇率的因素、如何确定均衡汇率方面，而最近十几年才出现了从人口年龄结构角度出发研究实际汇率。需求供给、投资储蓄的变动会影响实际汇率，而需求供给、投资储蓄的变化则是人口年龄结构变动产生的结果。因此，本文决定研究人口年龄结构怎样通过不同传导机制对实际汇率产生影响，并在前人的研究基础上，运用较新的数据探索实际汇率与人口年龄结构之间的关系，并对我国未来的实际汇率进行简单预测。 本文采用中国1994—2014年的季度数据，实证研究人口年龄结构对实际汇率的影响。实证结果显示：首先，我们得出劳动人口上升，实际汇率贬值；老年人口上升，实际汇率升值的结论。其次，其结果说明通过需求效应和经常项目机制对实际汇率产生的需求影响大于通过“巴拉萨一萨缪尔森”效应机制产生的供给影响，需求因素是人口年龄结构影响实际汇率的主要原因。最后，根据结论和目前国情，简单预测中国在未来将会因人口老龄化使人民币实际汇率存在升值的趋势。 关键词：实际汇率；人口年龄结构；“巴拉萨一萨缪尔森”效应 ABSTRACT Real exchange rate is the key of the international finance, the problem that the real exchange rate changes is one of the main topics of the finance research. Early scholars paied attention to the influencing factors of exchange rate and how to determine the equilibrium exchange rate. And in the last ten years before, the research of real exchange rate from the perspective of population age structure is beginning to appear. The changes of demanding, supplying, investment, saving will impact the real exchange rate. The changes of demanding, supplying, investment, saving is the result of changes in the population age structure. Therefore, this article decide to investigate how the different transmission mechanism has an impact on the real exchange rate, and on the basis of predecessors research, use the newer data to explore the relationship between the real exchange rate and the age structure of the population. And I will make a simple forecast to the future of Chinas real exchange rate. This article uses the quarterly data from 1994 to 2014 in China, empirical research on the influence of population age structure of the real exchange rate. The empirical findings show that: first, we concluded that labor population increase, the real exchange rate decline; the elderly population rise, the real exchange rate rise. Secondly, the results shows that the positive impact on the real exchange rate through the demand effect and the mechanism of the current pr