人口年龄结构与房价——基于省际面板数据的实证分析.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 31 人口年龄结构与房价 ——基于省际面板数据的实证分析 摘要：近年来，有关人口年龄结构与经济发展相互关系的研究不断增多，但研究焦点主要集中在人口老龄化对社会经济发展产生的影响，对于人口年龄结构与住房价格关系的实证研究较为缺乏。本文基于2004—2013年中国31个省市自治区的面板数据，以人口年龄结构为切入点，构建面板数据模型展开人口年龄结构与房地产价格变动的计量分析。实证结果表明少儿抚养比与房价显著负相关。少儿抚养比每降低1%，住宅价格就提高1.1%左右。与此同时老年抚养比与住宅价格显示正相关，但不显著。由此可以推测，随着老龄化的加剧和少儿抚养比的降低，未来中国的房价有上升的趋势。本文最后基于实证结论，给出了相关的政策建议。 关键词：人口年龄结构；老年抚养比；少儿抚养比；房价 The Age Structure of Population and Housing Price —Based on the Analysis of the Panel Data at Provincial-level Abstract: In recent years, the research on the relationship between population age structure and economic development is increasing, but the study mainly focus on the impact of population aging on social and economic development. The empirical study of relationship between housing price and population aging is relatively lacking.This article is based on 2004-2013 panel data of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, with the population age structure as the breakthrough point, build panel data model on population age structure and econometric analysis of real estate price change. The empirical results show that childrens dependency ratio is negatively related to the housing prices significantly. For every 1% below the childrens dependency ratio, residential property prices will increase by about 1.1%. Meanwhile elderly dependency ratio shows positive correlation with housing price but not significant. It can be speculated that, with the increase of aging and the child dependency ratio decreasing,the housing prices has a rising trend.Based on the empirical conclusions, this paper gives the relevant policy recommendations. Keywords: Age Structure of Population; Children’s dependency ratio; Elderly dependency ratio; Housing Price 一、引言 由于历史和现实的原因，我国人口年龄结构的变化显得比较明显。近年来，随着上世纪五十年代“婴儿潮”出生的人口逐渐步入老年，中国将迎来“银色时代”。至2013年末，中国65岁及以上人口数突破2亿大关，老龄化水平达到了14.8%。人口年龄结构的变化不仅仅是社会问题，也与经济发展有着密切的关系。近年来，有关人口年龄结构与经济发展相互关系的研究不断增多，但研究焦点主要集中在人口老龄化对社会经济发展产生的影响，对于人口年龄结构与住房价格关系的实证研究较为缺乏。 根据国家有关经济发展的统计数据可以发现房地产业已经成为国民经济的支柱性产业，在我