汽车半导体：不要后退，是时候找到一档了.docxVIP

Global Research 15 August 2019 EquitiesGlobalSemiconductors Equities Global Semiconductors David Mulholland, CFA Analyst +44-20-7568 4069 Francois-Xavier Bouvignies Analyst +44-20-7568 7105 Timothy Arcuri Analyst +1-415-352 5676 Nicolas Gaudois Analyst +852-2971 5681 Kenji Yasui Analyst +81-3-5208 6211 Shingo Hirata, CFA Analyst +81-3-5208 6224 Bill Lu Analyst +852-2971 8360 John Ahn Analyst +1-415-352 5624 Patrick Hummel,CFA Analyst +41-44-239 79 23 David Lesne Analyst +44-20-7567 5815 Autos/Industrial SemiconductorsMoving out of reverse, time to find first gear Growth rates bottoming but inventory still high and autos demand weakAs we look into H2 we see y-o-y revenue growth rates starting to improve and into H120E the sector should return to growth. However, the sector still faces headwinds of high inventory at semi companies (c126 days for semis in Q2 vs average of 108 days) and at autos OEMs (5 days above Q2 historic average) along with weak autos demand and production (although demand level to Tier 1 suppliers appears to be stabilising). Typically improving y-o-y growth rates would be positive for stock performance but given this is partly just easier comps and the sector is already +22% year-to-date we would remain stock selective and focus on structural growth names like Infineon. High inventories at Semis/OEMsAs we enter Q3, the slower rate of demand in end markets heightens inventory risk at semis. Within our review of the data, we found still high level of inventory days for semis (c+18 days vs normal Q2 levels although absolute inventories stabilised). We believe that for those with in-house production this will mean utilisation rates will likely remain low and a headwind to margins. More importantly, downstream inventories remain high, especially in autos, where stock reduced c4 days in Q2 vs Q1 but still high vs historic average (i.e. 58 days in Q2 above average of 53 days). The analysis of company comments in Q2 suggests OEMs will likely dec