詹姆斯·R·埃文斯-数据、模型与决策(第4版)evans_sda4_ppt_11.pptVIP

詹姆斯·R·埃文斯-数据、模型与决策(第4版)evans_sda4_ppt_11.ppt

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Chapter 11: Making Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty 11-1Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Types of Business DecisionsDecisions involving a single alternativeCapital equipment purchase decisionDecisions involving non-mutually exclusive alternativesProject or investment decisionsDecisions involving mutually exclusive alternativesFactory location decision11-2Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Structuring Decision ProblemsPotential alternative decisionsFactory locationsProducts to introduceInvestments Criteria by which to evaluate decisionsEnvironmental impactCostNet profit11-3Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Decisions Involving a Single AlternativeInternal rate of return (IRR)IRR is the discount rate that makes the total present value of all cash flows zero:11-4Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Decisions Involving Non-Mutually Exclusive AlternativesRanking criteriaReturn on investment (ROI)Cost/benefit ratios11-5Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Decisions Involving Mutually Exclusive AlternativesScoring model - a quantitative assessment of a decision alternative’s value based on a set of attributes. 11-6Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Uncertainty and RiskUncertainty – imperfect knowledge of what will happenRisk – potential of an unfavorable outcomeMagnitude of the outcomeProbability of occurrence11-7Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall Decisions Involving Uncertainty and RiskIdentify decision alternativesIdentify possible outcomes or chance eventsEvaluate the payoff associated with each alternative and outcome (payoff table)Example: Mortgage choice costsThe decision depends on how risk is valued.Decision/EventRates riseRates stableRates fall1-year ARM$61,134$46,443$40,1613-year ARM$56,901$51,075$46,72130-year fixed$54,

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