【行业报告】世界银行-碳税对南亚有利吗？（英）-2023.5_市场营销策划_2023年市场报告6月第.docxVIP

Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working P Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia? Valerie Mercer-Blackman Lazar Milivojevic Victor Mylonas South Asia Region Office of the Chief Economist May 2023 P Policy Research Working Paper 10462 Abstract This paper estimates the effects of gradually introducing a US$25/ton CO2-equivalent carbon tax in South Asian economies using the Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT). The results for South Asia suggest that mone- tized welfare co-benefits net of efficiency costs from such a tax—regardless of what other economies or regions do— are resoundingly positive, at 1.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Revenues from the carbon tax are estimated at 1.3 percent of GDP in 2030, which is substantial for a region with a low tax-to-GDP ratio. Once these revenues are recy- cled, the Keynesian multiplier effect through increased public investment and transfers to households is associ- ated with slightly positive net economic growth rate effects.  Household incidence analysis shows that the carbon tax can be designed as an equity-enhancing policy, given net reductions in the Gini coefficient for consumption from revenue recycling. The carbon tax is also associated with a 2 percent weighted average input cost increase across eco- nomic sectors in 2030. Finally, the paper discusses selected results on and the political economy of a comprehensive energy price reform package (fossil fuel subsidy phaseout and carbon tax), with broad guidance on its implementa- tion. Overall, the paper provides supportive evidence for the green transition, showing that there need not be a trade-off between inclusive growth and going green in South Asia.. This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, South Asia Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions