城市规划人口规模预测问题的反思与改进——基于38个重点城市七普人口与规划人口的比较分析.pdf

78|城市研究

城市规划人口规模预测问题的反思与改进*

——基于38个重点城市七普人口与规划人口的比较分析

ReflectionandImprovementonthePredictionofUrbanPlanningPopulation

Size:BasedontheComparisonBetweentheSeventhNationalCensusandthePlanning

Populationin38KeyCities

王伟欧阳鹏蒋雅婷陈懿慧WANGWei,OUYANGPeng,JIANGYating,CHENYihui

摘要规划人口规模预测作为城市总体规划的重要编制内容，影响着城市资源承载、土地开发、公共服务供给和基础设施配置

的可持续性。通过对38座重点城市总体规划的人口规划值与七普人口实际值差距比较分析，发现2020年规划人口和实际

人口呈现不同规模等级城市的差异化系统性偏离状况，进而对其成因展开剖析，最后面向新时期国土空间规划编制和

实施工作，提出需要正确定位规划人口预测的作用，加强从技术预测逻辑到政策调控逻辑的转变，创新人口类型认知概

念体系、多情景推演模型方法和动态精准响应机制，加强规划全生命周期弹性应对等建议，以期更好地提升国土空间治

理现代化水平。

AbstractAsanimportantpartofurbanmasterplanning,planningpopulationsizepredictionaffectsthesustainabilityofurbanresource

capacity,landdevelopment,publicservicesupplyandinfrastructureconfiguration.Bycomparingtheplanningpopulation

oftheurbanmasterplanningof38citieswiththeactualpopulationoftheSeventhCensus,thisstudyfindsthatthereisa

differentiatedandsystematicdeviationbetweentheplanningpopulationandtheactualpopulationwithdifferentscalesand

levelsin2020,thenthedeepcausesofsystematicdeviationareanalyzed.Finally,theimprovementsuggestionsareput

forwardforthepreparation,implementationandmanagementofterritorialspatialmasterplanninginthenewera,including

correctlypositioningtheroleofplanningpopulationprediction,transformingfromthelogicoftechnicalpredictiontopolicy

regulation,innovatingtheconceptualsystemofpopulationtypecognition,themethodofmulti-scenariodeductionmodel

andthedynamicandaccurateresponsemechanism,aswellasstrengtheningtheflexibleresponsetothewholelifecycleof

planning.

关键词人口规模；人口预测；总体规划；城市

Keywordspopulationsize;populationprediction;masterplanning;city

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