安联贸易 2025 全球调查报告：贸易战、贸易协定及其对企业的影响.pptxVIP

AllianzTnwdeGlobaⅡSurvey2025

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Content

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ExecutiveSummary

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Unpredictabletradepoliciesdentexporters’confidence

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Morethanhalfofexportersexpectlongerpaymenttermsin2025

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Copingmechanisms:frontloading,rerouting,passingonhighercostsanddiversifying

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US-Chinaderiskingislikelytocontinue,despitethe90-daytradedeal

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Thetradewariscreatingopportunistic

friendshoring:theEurope-Asiarapprochement

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CantheLatinAmericanexceptionhold?

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Appendix

AllianzResearch

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•TheunpredictabilityofUStradepolicyhasdentedexporters’confidence:42%ofexportingcompaniesnowanticipateturnovertodeclinebetween-2%and-10%overthenext12months–comparedtofewerthan5%before“LiberationDay”.Conductedacrossapproximately4,500companiesinChina,France,

Germany,Italy,Poland,Singapore,Spain,theUKandtheUSintwowavesoverMarchandApril2025,theAllianzTradeGlobalSurveyrevealsthatcloseto60%offirmsexpectanegativeimpactfromthefull-fledgedtradewarinitiatedbytheTrumpadministrationon2April,alsocalled“LiberationDay”.Lessthanhalfof

companiesexpectpositiveexportgrowth,comparedto80%before“LiberationDay”.Productioncouldalsobehit,with27%offirmssayingthattheycouldstopproductiontemporarilyasFXvolatilityexacerbatesthecostofhighertariffs,and32%intendtostopimportsoroffshoreproductiontoavoiddelaysorincreasedcosts.Intermsofinvestmentoutlook,companiesareincreasinglyfocusingon

operationalefficiencyandcost-cutting,with45%ofGermanfirmsprioritizing

thesemeasurespost“LiberationDay”.Conversely,77%ofChinesefirmsare

lookingtodiversifyintonewbusinesslinesandincreasingcapitalexpendituresinstrategicareas.Evenwiththeadventofbilateraltradedealsinrecentweeks,someofthereliefcouldprovetemporarya