外来入侵植物南美蟛蜞菊的中国的适生区预测.docVIP

  外来入侵植物南美蟛蜞菊的中国的适生区 预测# 刘勇涛，戴志聪，薛永来，孙见凡，朱方，杜道林** 5 10 15 20 25 30 （江苏大学环境学院，江苏 镇江 212013） 摘要：通过物种分布模型预测入侵物种适生区，优先选择物种最可能扩散的地区，提早进行 防控，是生物入侵管理的有效手段。南美蟛蜞菊是一种具有严重危害性的入侵植物，已在我 国南部部分地区形成入侵。本文基于南美蟛蜞菊在美洲和中国海南的分布记录和 19 个生物 气候变量，应用 MaxEnt 模型对其适生区进行建模，并通过计算 AUC/AICc 指数选择 MaxEnt 的最佳设置，用于预测南美蟛蜞菊在中国当前及未来气候变化情形下的适生区。结果表明， 海南、广东、广西、云南、福建、台湾等地区是南美蟛蜞菊的适生区，且在未来气候情形下， 其适生区范围向北扩张。为减小南美蟛蜞菊入侵可能导致的损失，需要根据南美蟛蜞菊当前 分布情况，结合其适生区分布图，优先对现有分布区周边的适生区进行防控。 关键词：南美蟛蜞菊；MaxEnt；适生区；预测 中图分类号：Q948. 2 Prediction of suitable area of an alien invasive species (Wedelia trilobata) in China LIU Yongtao, DAI Zhicong, XUE Yonglai, SUN Jianfan, ZHU Fang, DU Daolin (School of Environmental Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China) Abstract: Predicting the suitable area of invasive species through species distribution modeling, and selecting the area that the species would spread with high potential for prevention, is the most effective effort of bio-invasion management. Wedelia trilobata (L.) Hitchc. is an invasive plant with strong detriment and has invaded parts of South China. Based on distribution records from America and Hainan Island in China, together with 19 climate variables, the present study used the MaxEnt for distribution modeling of W. trilobata. The optimal configuration of MaxEnt was selected by AUC and AICc of models, and was then used to predicting the suitable area of W. trilobata in China under both current and future climate scenario. The results indicated that, there exists suitable area of W. trilobata in Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Fujian and Taiwan. Under future climate, suitable area of W. trilobata expands northward. In order to minimize the damage caused by invasion of W. trilobata, preventive actions should be taken with top priority focusing on the suitable area around the current distribution of W. trilobata. Key words: Wedelia trilobata; MaxEnt; suitable area; prediction 35 0 引言 随着经济全球化的发展，生物入侵所带来的风险急剧上升，严重威胁着生态安全、公共 卫生与农业可持续发展。我国也因生物入侵面临着严峻的环境挑战，