基于小波分析法与滚动式时间序列法的风电场风速短期预测优.pdfVIP

第 41 卷第 1 期 中南大学学报( 自然科学版) Vol.41 No.1 2010 年 2 月 Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology) Feb. 2010 基于小波分析法与滚动式时间序列法的 风电场风速短期预测优化算法 刘辉，田红旗，李燕飞 ( 中南大学 交通运输工程学院，轨道交通安全教育部重点实验室，湖南 长沙，410075) 摘 要：为实现风电场风速的超前多步高精度预测，提出一种基于小波分析法与滚动式时间序列法混合建模的优 化算法。该优化算法引入小波分析法对风电场实测非平稳风速序列进行分解重构计算，将非平稳性原始风速序列 转化为多层较平稳分解风速序列，利用对传统时间序列分析法改进后的滚动式时间序列法对各分解层风速序列建 立非平稳时序预测模型，并通过模型方程实现超前多步滚动式预测计算。仿真结果表明：该优化算法实现了风速 的高精度短期多步预测，将传统时间序列分析法对应超前 1 步、3 步、5 步的预测精度分别提高了 54.22%，26.44% 和 19.38%，其预测的平均相对误差分别为 1.14%，3.06%和 4.41% ；优化算法具有较强的细分与自学习能力。 关键词：风速预测；滚动式时间序列法；小波分析法；时间序列分析法；优化算法 中图分类号：TK81 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672−7207(2010)01−0370−06 Short-term forecasting optimization algorithm for wind speed from wind farms based on wavelet analysis method and rolling time series method LIU Hui, TIAN Hong-qi, LI Yan-fei (Key Laboratory of Traffic Safety on Track, Ministry of Education, School of Traffic Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China) Abstract: In order to achieve high-precision multi-step ahead prediction for real-time wind speed data that sampled from wind farm, based on wavelet analysis method and rolling time series method, a forecast improved algorithm was proposed. Wavelet analysis method was used to make decomposition and reconstruction calculations for original wind speed series, and multi-layer more steady wind speed series was obtained. Then rolling time series method that was modif