基于蒙特卡罗模拟的酒店分销平台订单预测研究.pdfVIP

中国科技论文在线 基于蒙特卡罗模拟的酒店分销平台订单预 测研究 李永超，周东清** 5 （大连理工大学计算机学院，辽宁大连 116024 ） 摘要：酒店分销平台订单预测在平台日常运营扮演着重要的角色。这也是酒店分销平台实施 收益管理的基础。本文提出了以概率与数理统计为基础的蒙特卡罗算法来预测订单量，并使 用了霍尔特线性指数平滑法来辅助预测。最后，根据中航信航旅通酒店分销平台2010 年至 2013 年大连地区的订单数据进行了试验。结果表明，蒙特卡罗算法误差较小，优于本文对 10 比的其他预测算法。 关键词：预测；蒙特卡罗模拟；伯努利试验；酒店分销平台 中图分类号：TP311 Forecasting Orders of Hotel Distribution Platform Based on 15 Monte Carlo Simulation LI Yongchao, ZHOU Dongqing (Dalian University of Technology, School of Computer Science, LiaoNing DaLian 116024) Abstract: The orders forecast of hotel distribution platforms plays an important role in the day-to-day operations . It is the basis of the implementation of revenue management of hotel 20 distribution platform. In this paper, a Monte Carlo algorithm based on probability and mathematical statistics is proposed to predict the amount of orders. The author also compose Holt linear exponential smoothing method to help predict. Finally, the author test the algorithm using order data from 2010 to 2013 according to the the Travelsky SOHOTO through the hotel distribution platform Dalian area. The results show that the Monte Carlo algorithm for error is 25 smaller, better than other prediction algorithm for comparison in this article. Keywords: Forecasting; Monte Carlo Simulation; Bernoulli Trial; Hotel Distribution Platform 0 引言 酒店分销平台是网络运营商通过互联网为代理人提供的一个网络分销预订平台，专门用 30 于酒店产品的预订和销售，是全球分销系统（GDS ）的重要组成部