我国土地财政和经济增长的关系研究——土地财政库兹涅兹曲线假说的提出和面板数据检验.pdfVIP

我国土地财政与经济增长的关系研究 ——土地财政库兹涅兹曲线假说的提出与面板数据检验 黄 砺 （武汉市华中师范大学经济学院，湖北武汉 430079 ） 摘要:研究目的：分析土地财政与经济增长之间所存在的内在关系。研究方法：文献分析法，计量经济分析。研究结 果：（1）在全国范围内，土地财政指标与经济增长之间存在着单调递增的关系，否定了本文所构想的土地财政库兹涅 兹曲线假说；（2）在东、中、西部地区，土地财政指标与经济增长之间的关系虽然呈现出不同的曲线形态，但就现阶 段而言，三大区域的土地财政指标在经济增长过程中都呈上扬之势；（3）城镇化、工业化在全国及三大区域对土地财 政指标发挥着不同程度和不同作用方向的影响，这为我们深刻认识土地财政这一客观现实提供了帮助。研究结论：如 果不从财税体制改革和土地制度改革的顶层设计入手，而寄希望于土地财政问题能够在经济发展过程中自行得到解 决，那么土地财政以及由其所引发的各类矛盾与问题，必将成为制约我国可持续发展的障碍之一。 关键词：土地财政；经济增长；库兹涅兹曲线；面板数据 An Analysis on the Correlation Between Land Finance and Economic Development: Based on Land Finance Kuznets Curve Hypothesis and Panel Data Evidence HUANG Li Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the correlation between land finance and economic development. Methods of documentation and econometric analysis were employed. Results show that China hasn’t the land finance Kuznets curve, the relationship between land finance index and economic growth is much like monotonic increasing function. Although eastern, central and western areas have different changing paths between land finance and economic development, they are all in the rising phase of construction land expansion now. In the models, Urbanization and industrialization characteristics play different degrees and different roles of influence to land finance index. If we hope the land finance problems can be solved in the process of economic development by its own, it will become one of the obstacles to Chinese sustainable development. In order to moderate the conflicts which caused by land finance, we urgently need to reform fiscal system, tax system and land management system from the top-level design. Key words: land finance; economic development; Kuznets curve; panel data