北斗二代卫星导航系统集成化风险分析与管理研究.pdfVIP

CSNC2010 第一届中国卫星导航学术年会 北京 北斗二代卫星导航系统集成化风险分析与管理研究 姜江 陈英武 姚锋 邢立宁 （国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院，湖南长沙，410073 ） 摘 要：为解决北斗二代卫星导航系统这类大型复杂工程系统建设中的风险管理问题，在分析总结国内外研究成果的基础 上，运用先进的风险分析与评估技术，提出了大型工程项目集成化风险管理的概念，其包括集成化风险管理过程、风险 管理组织及风险管理决策支持系统工具。整个框架以层次全息建模 HHM 、不确定多准则决策 MCDM 和证据推理 ER 为 新技术，通过风险规划、风险识别、风险评估、风险应对、风险监控五个工作实现风险的预测、识别、分析、评估与应 对。风险管理组织解决风险管理过程中人员组织、岗位设置及文件管理问题。决策支持系统作为风险管理工具，提供一 个交互式操作与运算平台。集成化风险管理为北斗二代卫星导航系统提供了综合分析与处理不确定信息的一整套解决方 案，为项目管理人员提供了科学的风险管理策略与决策支持。 关键字：大型工程项目；风险管理；集成化风险管理；关键技术 Integrated risk analysis management for COMPASS Chen Yingwu, Jiang Jiang, Yao Feng, Xing Lining (College of Information System and Management, NUDT, Changsha, 410073, P.R.China) Abstract: In order to resolve risk management problems in large-scale project, like COMPASS, the concept of Integrated Risk Analysis Management (IRAM) is proposed in this paper, on the base of overseas or domestic real project practices and advanced risk analysis technology. IRAM consists of risk management process, organization and decision support system tool. Risk management process includes risk planning, risk identification, risk assessment, risk control and risk monitoring, and implements corresponding risk management mission. Risk management organization builds formal institutions, rules and position for personnel and documentation management. Decision support system provides an interactive operation platform tool for risk management. In addition, as the advanced risk analysis techniques, Hierarchical Holographic Model (HHM), Uncertain Multiple Criteria Decision Making (UMCDM) and Evidential Reasoning (ER) are embedded in IRAM. IRAM may provide a successful solving alternative to deal with uncertain information and risk