人口老龄化经济效应研究.pdfVIP

第28 卷 第4 期 石河子大学学报(哲学社会科学版) Vol.28 No.4 2014 8 月 Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences) Aug 2014 DOI ：10 . 13880/j .65-1210/c .201404 .016 人口老龄化经济效应研究 王云多 （黑 江大学 经济与工商管理学院，黑 江 哈尔滨 150080 ）） ［摘 要］该文运用动态世代交叠模型，预测人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资的短期和长期影 响，进一步考察其对生产能力的间接影响。通过将劳动供给和人力资本投资决策视为内生变量，模拟研究 表明，短期内人口老龄化为青年人提供了更多人力资本投资机会，导致劳动供给减少，产出水平下降，人口 老龄化经济成本增加。可是，长期内人口老龄化为社会提供更多的熟练劳动力，提高劳动参与率和产出水 平，降低人口老龄化的经济成本。 ［关键词］人口老龄化；劳动供给；人力资本；产出 ［中图分类号］F224 .0 ；C924 .24 ［文章标识码］A ［文章编号］1671-0304(2014)04-0083-07 On the Economic Effects of Population Ageing WANG Yun-duo (School of Economics and Business Administration 袁Heilongj iang University 袁Harbin 150080 袁Heilongj iang 袁china) Abstract:This study explores the short-term and long-term impact of population ageing on labor supply and human capital investment, as well as the induced effects on output. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model, labor supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital. Consequently, the reduction in labor supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However, current and future middle-age cohorts produce a lot of skilled labor, which eventually raises labor participation rate as well as productive capacity and lowers the cost of population ageing. Keywords:population ageing 曰labor supply 曰human capital 曰output 一、研究背景及相关问题研究述评 力供给减少将导致国民储蓄减少，实际工资增加 ① 和利率下降。 根据世界银行公