农产品价格波动成因与对策研究.pdfVIP

中国农业科技导报,2013,15(1):176-184 Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology 农产品价格波动成因与对策研究 1 2 3 李忠斌 ,　 文晓国 ,　 李军明 (1.中南民族大学经济学院,武汉430074;2.中国科学院-国家民委农业信息技术研究与开发联合实验室, 武汉430074;3.中南民族大学民族学与社会学学院,武汉430074) 摘　 要:从分析农民的生产行为入手,研究了农产品价格波动的原因,结果显示,农产品作为必需品本身的特 性是农产品价格波动的根源,对农产品价格的预期,引起农民、消费者、投机者对农产品的储存和抛售行为加 剧了农产品价格的波动,不合理的农产品储备制度会加剧农产品价格的波动,选择合适的收购或抛售时机并 考虑这些行为对农户生产和对社会储存或抛售的影响,才能起到抑制农产品价格波动的作用,农业信息化能 够提高农民预测的准确性和农民对其之间相互影响的认识,达到抑制农产品价格波动的目的。 关键词:农产品价格波动;价格预期;农产品储备制度;农业信息化 doi:10.3969/ j.issn.1008-0864.2013.01.28 中图分类号:F325.2　 　 　 文献标识码:A　 　 　 文章编号:1008-0864(2013)01-0176-09 Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Products: Causes and Countermeasures 1 2 3 LI Zhong-bin ,WEN Xiao-guo ,LI Jun-ming (1.College of Economic,South Central University for Nationalities;2.Agricultural Information Technology Research and Development Laboratory of Chinese Academy of Sciences and State Ethnic Affairs Commission,Wuhan430074; 3.College of Ethnology and Sociology,South Central University for Nationalities,Wuhan430074,China) Abstract:Through analyzing farmers’ production behavior, this paper studied the causes of price fluctuations of agricultural products. The results showed that as necessities, agricultural products itself was the cause for price fluctuation. The expectation for agricultural products price led thefarmers,consumer,speculators to store and close out agricultural products, which also exacerbated the volatile prices of agricultural products. Besides, the unreasonable agricultural productsreserve systemwouldaggravatethevolatilepricesof agricultural