流行病学研究中的偏倚__培训课件.pptVIP

大家辛苦了 * 学习要点 * So, indeed the definition we are looking for is in the dictionary, but nonetheless it is funny word and I’ve always been interested in it origins. It probably comes the scholor, Bias, of Priene, who was one of the 7 sages of classical antiquity. Legend has it that Bias was once consulted by King Croesus about the best way to deploy warships against the Ionians. Because Bias wanted to avoid a war, he falsly advised the king that the Ionians were planning to use horese. Bias later confessed to the King that he had lied but theKing was so pleased about his motives that he made peace with the Ionans. Subsequently, the deviation from truth became known as bias. * 疾病严重程度、患者经济状况、就诊方便与否都会影响入院率 * Let’s start with an example. Consider the case of a tobacco company epidemiologist who believes . . . * It turns out that finding cases is not very difficult and your colleague has found 1000 cases from a population-based registry, of whom 820 have a history of carrying matches. Among 1000 reference subjects . . . Someone is asked to come to the board to make the 2 x 2 table * Right, in a case-reference study, the measure of association of choice is an odds ratio and this 2x2 table gives the framework for calculating it. So, is he on to something, this tobacco company epidemiologist? Does exposure to matches - and all those burnt carbons- cause lung cancer? Why not? * Right again, you are concerned that match owners may in fact have a greater probability of smoking than non-match owners and that this may explain the apparent assoc betwn matches and lung cancer. So, you decide to look at the relationship between matches and lung cancer . . . * So, after stratifying by smoking status, you get 2 two-by-two tables. In each one, all subjects are homogeneous in terms of smoking. In this table, all the subjects are smokers and in this one all the subjects are non-smokers. What do we see? The effect of matches seen in the crude table is no longer seen in t