复杂机电系统可靠性预测的若干理论与方法.pdfVIP

第 50 卷第 14 期 2014 年 7 月 机械工程学报 JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Vo1.50 NO.14 Jul. 2014 DOI: 10.3901/JME.2014.14.001 复杂机电系统可靠性预测的若干理论与方法* 郭建英孙永全于春雨苑会娟苏子美 (哈尔滨理工大学传感器与可靠性工程研究所 哈尔滨 150080) 摘要z 复杂系统可靠性综合、可靠性增长、可靠性预测己成为可靠性工程的三个重要研究方向，如何从方案论证、初设计、 研制、试运行、投产的全过程，科学评估和预测复杂机电系统可靠性是工程实践中亟待解决的瓶颈问题。立足事前分析、事 中分析、事后分析三个层面，探讨单元为不同分布时的系统可靠性综合及预测、试运行阶段系统可靠性增长分析、系统可靠 性增长预测、系统可用性评定等命题中的若干理论与方法。针对具体工程背景，提出解决问题的新思路，并进行实例验证， 为系统研究大型复杂机电系统可靠性提供理论依据和技术支持。 关键i司 z 复杂机电系统:可靠性预测:系统可靠性综合:可靠性增长预测:可用性 中图分类号: TP212 Some Theory and Method for Complex Electromechanical System Reliability Prediction GUO Jianying SUN Yongquan YU Chunyu YUAN Huijuan SU Zimei (Institute of Sensor and Reliability Engineeri吨， Harbin University ofScience and Technology, Harbin 150080) Abstract: Complex systems reliability synthesis, reliability grow也 and reliability prediction have become 也ree important research directions in reliabi1ity engineeri吨， and how to evaluate and predict complex elωtromechanical system reliabi1ity is a bottleneck problem, which is proposed according to engineering practice, during the whole process of pr吗ect approachment, initial design, development, pilot run, and manufacture stage. Some theory and method for system reliabi1ity synthesis with different unit distributions, system reliability growth analysis during pilot ru且， sy蜘m reliability growth prediction, and system av创lability assessment 缸e discussed, based on pre-analysis, middle-analysis, and postmortem analysis. New idea is proposed for the problem according to specific engineering background, and instance validation is given. Research provides theoretical basis and technical support for large-scale complex electromechanical systems reliability study. Keywor由: complex electromechanical system; reliability prediction; system reliability syn也esis; reliability growth prediction; avai1abi1ity 0 前言 复杂机电系统 (Complex elec位omechanical system)一词，见于中南大学钟掘院士、西安交通大 学屈梁生院士等学者的多篇论文，如文献[1-2]等。 一般把结构复杂，集机、电、液和控制于一体的大 型动力装备称为复杂机电系统，包括发