基于二级密封拍卖招标的工程成本概率判断模型.pdfVIP

第 33 卷第 4 期 系统工程理论与实践 Vo1.33, NO.4 2013 年 4 月 8ystems Engineering - Theory Practice Apr., 2013 文章编号: 1000-6788(2013)04-0949-06 中图分类号 F403.7 文献标志码 A 基于二级密封拍卖招标的工程成本概率判断模型 吕炜1. 2 贺昌政 1 高静 1 ， 3 (1.四川大学商学院、成都 610064; 2. 重庆市审计局，重庆 401177; 3 西南大学经济管理学院，重庆 400716) 摘要如何评判一个投标人的报价是否低于其成本是合理低价评标的关键因素之一.论文首先运 用博弈理论思想分析了二级密封拍卖招标模式投标人的最优竞标策略是按其成本报价然后针对 投标人在二级密封拍卖招标模式下的最优竞标策略是按其真实成本报价这一特点?利用假设检验 理论结合竞标人报价数的样本容量『建立了基于竞标人报价样本容量的工程成本概率判断模型.在 α 置信水平下，竞标人报价是落在拒绝域还是接受域以判断投标人的投标报价是否低于其成本.该 模型既解决了如何判断施工企业投标报价是否低于成本的难题，又丰富和充实了工程评标理论. 关键词二级密封拍卖，招标;工程成本;概率判断模型 Probability judgment model of project cost based on the second-price sealed auction bidding LU 认Tei 1 ， 2 ， HE Chang-zheng1, GAO Jing1,3 (1. Business School, Sichuan University, Che吨du 610064, China; 2. Cαt阳 3. College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chor Abstract One of the key factors to assess reasonable low bid is that how to judge whether a tenders offer is lower than its cost or not. In this paper, firstly, to analyze the optimal bidding strategy of bidder and find that the most optimal strategy is making bidding price equal to its cost by using the game theory. Then to build the probability judgment model of project cost based on bidder sample size by using hypothesis testing theory and bidder sample number under the second-price-sealed auction bidding. 80 at confidence level, whether one bidder is lower than its cost or not can be judged according to its position in accept region or rejection region. This model not only is used to solve problem that