Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Neural Network in Failure Time Prediction英文文献资料.docVIP

HindawiPublishingCorporation MathematicalProblemsinEngineering Volume2012,ArticleID953848,11pages doi:10.1155/2012/953848 ResearchArticle ApplyingHierarchicalBayesianNeuralNetworkin FailureTimePrediction Ling-JingKao andHsin-FenChen 1 2 1Department ofBusinessManagement, NationalTaipeiUniversity ofTechnology,10608,Taiwan 2Graduate Institute of Industrial and Business Management, National Taipei University of Technology, 10608,Taiwan Correspondence shouldbeaddressedtoLing-Jing Kao,lingjingkao@.tw Received31December 2011;Accepted 21February2012 Academic Editor:Jung-FaTsai Copyright q2012L.-J.KaoandH.-F.Chen. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction inanymedium,providedtheoriginalworkisproperlycited. With the rapid technology development and improvement, the product failure time prediction becomes an even harder task because only few failures in the product life tests are recorded. The classical statistical model relies on the asymptotic theory and cannot guarantee that the estimatorhasthe?nitesampleproperty.Tosolvethisproblem,weapplythehierarchicalBayesian neural network HBNN approach to predict the failure time and utilize the Gibbs sampler of MarkovchainMonteCarloMCMCtoestimate modelparameters. Inthisproposedmethod, the hierarchical structure isspeci?ed tostudy the heterogeneity among products. Engineers can use theheterogeneityestimatestoidentifythecausesofthequalitydi?erencesandfurtherenhancethe product quality.In order to demonstrate the e?ectiveness of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian neural network model, the prediction performance of the proposed model is evaluated using multiple performance measurement criteria. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is also conducted using di?erent number of hidden nodes and training sample sizes. The result shows thatHBNNcanprovidenotonlythepredictivedistribution