Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 AH1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 AH1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru 英文参考文献.doc

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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 AH1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru 英文参考文献

SpatialandTemporalCharacteristicsofthe2009A/H1N1 InfluenzaPandemicinPeru GerardoChowell1,2*,Ce′cileViboud2,CesarV.Munayco3,JorgeGo′mez3,LoneSimonsen2,4,MarkA. Miller2,JamesTamerius5,VictorFiestas6,EricS.Halsey7,VictorA.Laguna-Torres7 1Mathematical,ComputationalModelingSciencesCenter,SchoolofHumanEvolutionandSocialChange,ArizonaStateUniversity,Tempe,Arizona,UnitedStatesof America,2DivisionofEpidemiologyandPopulationStudies,FogartyInternationalCenter,NationalInstitutesofHealth,Bethesda,Maryland,UnitedStates ofAmerica, 3Direccio′n General de Epidemiolog?′a, Peru′ Ministerio de Salud, Lima, Peru′, 4Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George WashingtonUniversity,Washington,D.C.,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5SchoolofGeographyandDevelopment,UniversityofArizona,Tucson,Arizona,UnitedStatesof America,6InstitutoNacionaldeSalud,Lima,Peru′,7U.S.NavalMedicalResearchUnit6,Lima,Peru′ Abstract Background:Highlyrefinedsurveillancedataonthe2009A/H1N1influenzapandemicarecrucialtoquantifythespatialand temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here weprovide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns acrossadministrativeareasofPeru. Methods:Weuseddailycasesofinfluenza-like-illness,testsforA/H1N1influenzavirusinfections,andlaboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru’s Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantifiedtheassociationbetweenthewinterschoolvacationperiodandtheagedistributionofcases. Results:Thenationalpandemiccurverevealedabimodalwinterpandemicwave,withthefirstpeaklimitedtoschoolage childrenintheLimametropolitanarea,andthesec