Spatial Pattern Switching Enables Cyclic Evolution in Spatial Epidemics 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Spatial Pattern Switching Enables Cyclic Evolution in Spatial Epidemics 英文参考文献.doc

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Spatial Pattern Switching Enables Cyclic Evolution in Spatial Epidemics 英文参考文献

SpatialPatternSwitchingEnablesCyclicEvolutionin SpatialEpidemics MaartenChrisBoerlijst*.,WillemMarijnvanBallegooijen.¤ TheoreticalEcology,InstituteforBiodiversityandEcosystemDynamics,UniversityofAmsterdam,Amsterdam,TheNetherlands Abstract Infectiousdiseasesoftenspreadasspatialepidemicoutbreakwaves.Anumberofmodelstudieshaveshownthatsuchspatial patternformationcanhaveimportantconsequencesfortheevolutionofpathogens.Here,weshowthatsuchspatialpatterns can cause cyclic evolutionary dynamics in selection for the length of the infectious period. The necessary reversal in the directionofselectionisenabledbyaqualitativechangeinthespatialpatternfromepidemicwavestoirregularlocaloutbreaks. Thespatialpatternsareanemergentpropertyoftheepidemicsystem,andtheyarerobustagainstchangesinspecificmodel assumptions.Ourresultsindicatethatemergentspatialpatternscanactasarichsourceforcomplexityinpathogenevolution. Citation:BoerlijstMC,vanBallegooijenWM(2010)SpatialPatternSwitchingEnablesCyclicEvolutioninSpatialEpidemics.PLoSComputBiol6(12):e1001030. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1001030 Editor:MarkM.Tanaka,UniversityofNewSouthWales,Australia ReceivedJune8,2010;AcceptedNovember11,2010;PublishedDecember9,2010 Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsPublicDomaindeclarationwhichstipulatesthat,onceplacedinthepublic domain,thisworkmaybefreelyreproduced,distributed,transmitted,modified,builtupon,orotherwiseusedbyanyoneforanylawfulpurpose. Funding:Theauthorsreceivednospecificfundingforthiswork. CompetingInterests:Theauthorshavedeclaredthatnocompetinginterestsexist. *E-mail:m.c.boerlijst@uva.nl ¤Currentaddress:NationalInstituteforPublicHealthandtheEnvironment(RIVM),Bilthoven,TheNetherlands. .Theseauthorscontributedequallytothiswork. Introduction timescale than mutation and evolution. However, for many pathogens, in particular viruses and bacteria, this assumption need not be true, as even within a single host the pathogen can accumulatemanymutantsasaby-productofthelarge