Spatial Re-Establishment Dynamics of Local Populations of Vectors of Chagas Disease 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Spatial Re-Establishment Dynamics of Local Populations of Vectors of Chagas Disease 英文参考文献.doc

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Spatial Re-Establishment Dynamics of Local Populations of Vectors of Chagas Disease 英文参考文献

SpatialRe-EstablishmentDynamicsofLocalPopulations ofVectorsofChagasDisease HeinrichzuDohna1*,Mar?′aC.Cecere2,RicardoE.Gu¨rtler2,UrielKitron3,JoelE.Cohen4 1CenterforAnimalDiseaseModelling,DepartmentofVeterinaryMedicine,UniversityofCaliforniaDavis,Davis,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2LaboratoryofEco- Epidemiology,DepartmentofEcology,GeneticsandEvolution,UniversityofBuenosAires,CiudadUniversitaria,BuenosAires,Argentina,3DepartmentofEnvironmental Studies,EmoryUniversity,Atlanta,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4LaboratoryofPopulations,RockefellerUniversityandColumbiaUniversity,NewYork,NewYork, UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Prevention of Chagas disease depends mainly on control of the insect vectors that transmit infection. Unfortunately,thevectorshavebeenresurgentinsomeareas.Itisimportanttounderstandthedynamicsofreinfestation where it occurs. Here we show how continuous- and discrete-time models fitted to patch-level infestation states can elucidate different aspects of re-establishment. Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease, reinfested sites in threevillagesinnorthwestArgentinaaftercommunity-wideinsecticidesprayinginOctober1992. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:Differentmethodsofestimatingtheprobabilitiesofbugestablishmentoneachsitewere compared.Theresultsconfirmedpreviousresultsshowinga6-monthtimelagbetweendetectionofanewinfestationand dispersalevents.TheanalysisshowedthatmorenewbugpopulationsbecomeestablishedfromMaytoNovemberthan fromNovembertoMay.Thisseasonalincreaseinbugestablishmentcoincideswithaseasonalincreaseindispersaldistance. Inthefittedmodels,theprobabilityofnewbugestablishmentincreaseswithincreasingtimesincelastdetectedinfestation. Conclusions/Significance: These effects of season and previous infestation on bug establishment challenge our current understanding ofT. infestans ecology andhighlightimportant gaps inknowledge. Experiments necessarytoclosethese gapsarediscussed. Citation: zu Dohna H, Cecere MC, Gu¨rtler RE, Kitron U, C