Spatial Modelling of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya A Disease Control Planning Tool 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Spatial Modelling of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya A Disease Control Planning Tool 英文参考文献.doc

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Spatial Modelling of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya A Disease Control Planning Tool 英文参考文献

SpatialModellingofSoil-TransmittedHelminth InfectionsinKenya:ADiseaseControlPlanningTool RachelL.Pullan1*,PeterW.Gething2,JenniferL.Smith1,CharlesS.Mwandawiro3,HughJ.W.Sturrock1, CarolineW.Gitonga4,SimonI.Hay2,SimonBrooker1,4 1DepartmentofInfectiousandTropicalDiseases,LondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine,London,UnitedKingdom,2SpatialEcologyandEpidemiologyGroup, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 3Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya, 4KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme,Nairobi,Kenya Abstract Background: Implementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide interventionrecommendationsatpolicy-relevantspatialscales.Toguidecontrolofsoiltransmittedhelminths(STHs),maps arerequiredofthecombinedprevalenceofinfection,indicatingwherethisprevalenceexceedsaninterventionthresholdof 20%.HerewepresentanewapproachformappingtheobservedprevalenceofSTHs,usingtheexampleofKenyain2009. Methods and Findings: Observed prevalence data for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were assembled for 106,370 individuals from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. Ecological and climaticcovariateswereextractedfromhigh-resolutionsatellitedataandmatchedtosurveylocations.Bayesianspace-time geostatistical models were developed for each species, and were used to interpolate the probability that infection prevalenceexceededthe20%thresholdacrossthecountryforboth1989and2009.Mapsforeachspecieswereintegrated toestimatecombinedSTHprevalenceusingthelawoftotalprobabilityandincorporatingacorrectionfactortoadjustfor associations between species. Population census data were combined with risk models and projected to estimate the populationatriskandrequiringtreatmentin2009.Inmostareasfor2009,therewashighcertaintythatendemicitywas below the 20% threshold, with areas of endemicity $20% located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Comparisonofthepredic