after the reform on rmb exchange rate fluctuations on the macroeconomic impact of the asymmetry of（改革后,人民币汇率波动对宏观经济的不对称的影响）.docVIP

After the reform on RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the macroeconomic impact of the asymmetry of Papers to write Net: Abstract: After the reform on RMB exchange rate fluctuations is divided into ‘high volatility’ and ‘low volatility’ of the two states, established with a Markov state transition vector auto regression model to identify the RMB exchange rate fluctuations in the ‘high volatility’ and ‘low volatility’ state and its corresponding characteristics, and empirical testing of the spot exchange rate of RMB fluctuations in the different conditions that exist on the macroeconomic impact. Exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic studies have found there is a clear asymmetry, the results show that maintaining the RMB exchange rate ‘low volatility’ state to help China’s economic growth, while maintaining the ‘high volatility’ state, it will help reduce the appreciation of the RMB to bring domestic inflationary pressures. Keywords: RMB exchange rate fluctuations, MS-VAR I. Introduction This will be after the reform of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is divided into ‘high volatility’ and ‘low volatility’ of the two states, the establishment of a Markov state transition with a VAR model to identify the RMB exchange rate fluctuations ‘high volatility’ and ‘low volatility ‘state and its corresponding characteristics, and empirical testing of the spot exchange rate of RMB fluctuations in the different states of the macroeconomic impact of the existence of non-symmetry. Second, the empirical model: Markov state transition with a VAR model Assuming long-term purchasing power parity holds, then the following formula: et = pt-p * t ① Which et is the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar (indirect quotation, pt-p * t the inflation index for the United States after the logarithmic difference. Further, suppose the two countries in the money market equilibrium, that the following form: mt + vt = pt + yt ② m * t + v * t = p * t + y