re-shuffling of species with climate disruption a no-analog future for california birdsre-shuffling的鸟类与气候破坏加州经济的未来.pdfVIP

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No- Analog Future for California Birds? 1 1 1 2 3 Diana Stralberg *, Dennis Jongsomjit , Christine A. Howell , Mark A. Snyder , John D. Alexander , John A. Wiens1, Terry L. Root4 1 PRBO Conservation Science, Petaluma, California, United States of America, 2 Climate Change and Impacts Laboratory, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America, 3 Klamath Bird Observatory, Ashland, Oregon, United States of America, 4 Woods Institute for the Environment, Yang Yamazaki Environment Energy Building, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America Abstract By facilitating independent shifts in species’ distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the f