不确定环境下的管理决策研究——效果推理视角.docVIP

不确定环境下的管理决策研究——效果推理视角 崔连广 张敬伟 邢金刚 南开大学商学院 燕山大学创新与创业研究中心,燕山大学经济管理学院 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 如何在不确定环境下决策是管理研究和实践长期以来共同关心的问题。既有研究对该问题至少提出三种应对方法 :坚持预测并更好地计划;尽可能地适应;愿景驱动。与以上方法不同, 效果推理强调对未来的控制, 而不是聚焦于预测, 从而建立了一整套关于不确定环境下的决策理论。该理论包含五个基本原理, 是一套关于在不确定环境下如何思考、决策和行动的完整理论。经过近二十年的发展, 效果推理理论的内涵不断明晰, 相关的实证研究也取得了长足进展。然而, 该理论仍处于发展阶段, 对其重要缺陷进行补充完善, 将对丰富和发展不确定环境下的决策理论有所助益。 关键词： 管理决策; 不确定性; 效果推理; 控制; 预测; 作者简介：崔连广, 南开大学商学院讲师、博士, 研究方向为战略与创业管理; 作者简介：张敬伟, 燕山大学创新与创业研究中心, 燕山大学经济管理学院教授、博士, 研究方向为战略与创业管理; 作者简介：邢金刚, 南开大学商学院副教授、硕士, 研究方向为战略与创业管理 基金：国家自然科学基金项目 ;国家自然科学基金项目 资助 Decision Making in Uncertain Situations: An Effectuation Perspective Cui Lianguang Zhang Jingwei Xing Jin`gang Business School, Nankai University; Research Centre of Innovation and Ent repreneurship, School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University; Abstract： Many firms operate in a highly uncertain business environment. How to make decisions in uncertain situations has been a common concern for academic researchers as well as practitioners. Existing studies have proposed at least three approaches to decision making in uncertain situations: Planning approach; Adaptive approach; Visionary approach. Planning approach suggests that decision makers should try harder to predict more accurately. Adaptive approach claims that decision makers should try to move faster in order to adapt better. Visionary approach focuses on constructing an organization and its environment by visualizing future possibilities and proactively turns them into reality. Effectuation approach is different from these three approaches in the sense that it emphasizes on controlling the future rather than prediction. In turn, a comprehensive theory of decision making under uncertainties is developed. Effectuation theory includes five principles including pilot-in-the plane principle, bird-in-hand principle, affordable-loss principle, the crazy-quilt principle and levera