分层bayes方法在安徽省气象数据格点化分析中的应用-application of hierarchical bayes method in meteorological data lattice point analysis in anhui province.docxVIP
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分层bayes方法在安徽省气象数据格点化分析中的应用-application of hierarchical bayes method in meteorological data lattice point analysis in anhui province
? 1 章?论气?数据对?????和??都?很?????????■都建立??? 气??测站???→站???站?测?站???站???站?农气站和??气?站??站???这????气??????何?好?⑤?这?气?数据???? 研??对????????供??⑤????????很???研??????这?????????测???气????????????→?? 多?⑩??因?站?⑧??测????⑧短不?????布不均??测?站???????⑨??气候?析和数????研????不???真???▲??气 候?③?????将站???????????????气??????布???均??????????气???????????②?????????对??????气候?▲???研????????度气候?③??????③? 数据??其???矩????????????????数据?????将气候??????③??后?⑤???③数据??研??析?■??研???⑦??站??????③?????量?研?工??建 立?不同??????????数据???对不同?研???和????? 这 ? 数 据 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 力 ? ? ??④ ■ ■ ? ? ? ? 气 局?NOAA?研 ? ?? 降 ? ? ? ③ 研 ? ? ⑩ 具 ? ▲ ? ? ? ? ? 合 ? 析 降 ? 数 据 ??CMAP??④■NCDC?Peterson??GHCN数据???■East Anglia???Climatic Research Unit?④→CRU?研???????▲气候?量数据??CRU TS2.1??④■研???????气?合数据??CO-ADS????Hanson?气?数据??Jones???气???数据??Hulme降?数据???这?数据?????气候?③???数据???IPCC?????参⑧?据???数据??????③?④? 不??同?Jones??1994?将??气候数据??★?1993???章??????CAM?Climate Anomaly Method????????????气候距???均??????数据??CAM?④对数据????????????????通⑦?据??站????合??????出????HansenLebedeff?1987??出?????????数据??建立?④RSM?Reference Station Method?????????????度????20??30?????记?⑩⑧????站??参⑧?站?????数据?据参⑧?站数据????◆???后????????????气候???通▲距?????????????这??④突??对????强?数据????????⑩度?⑤??站气?数据???????→?RSM对数据??????很???其?参⑧?站?数据■???真???◆1气候????③?排除?测?站??建??测?器?????其?气候???测▲????????????参⑧?站?数据????气候??????③???其????不?参⑧?站?数据不?具?同?????????数据???????Peterson(1998)?出????④?研???气???③???将??后? 数据?5??5?????④单?均?????气候???????步?析?■??者对气?????③?④?研????步????????????④??????????数据?预测??★?(2000)对?????④???合??论述?????者将?????④???何?④?统??④???统??④??数?④??????④?????????合?④这?????④??????????④???????????④???出????????④???▲对数据??????析??据数据?????⑩???④??不⑧?绝对⑩???④??????2007???采??????④和?通Kriging??④建立?1951??2004??2.5??2.5???度??③?气?数据????两⑤??③ 数据?析??■54??气??③????⑦???2007?对?????④?????研???出??????数?论??参数???★?④??通▲?②???????④???距???④?张强??2009?????距?????④??通?????④?⑩???④????????④?多???④和局部多??④这???④预测??气?数据?通▲???②④??据?均误??mean error??? 均绝对误??mean absolute error??均??预测误??rootmean-square prediction error?这???■?断?通?????④④??其????④?????通????④???上??章引??????对其??????????
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