我国通胀预期的形成机制及管理对策分析-analysis of formation mechanism and management countermeasures of inflation expectations in china.docxVIP

南京财经大学硕士论文 南京财经大学硕士论文 II II ABSTRACT Base on quarterly data 2001Q2 (2001.03~2001.05) to 2012Q1 (2011.12~2012.02) of Consumers Saving Survey conducted by the People?s Bank of China. This paper figures out consumers? inflation expectation using C-P method. After examining the quality of our country?s consumers? inflation expectation, we find it not complete rational. Then, we use SVAR model to further study the effect factors and formation mechanism of inflation expectation. Factors such as CPI, asset price, aggregate demand and other macroeconomic variables, also, the central bank information disclosure and actual intervention are all included to analyze their effects to the inflation expectation using the impulse response chart. This paper concludes that our country?s consumers? inflation expectation suffers huge change with CPI and the housing price index, and we should pay attention to fluctuation of these two indexes, aiming at providing a good macro economic environment. The central bank information disclosure has shorter time lag in conducting consumers? inflation expectation, while the interest rate tool has greater incidence than information disclosure in the long run. So, we should use information disclosure and actual intervention in a combination way to anchoring the inflation expectation in the short and long term. Then, the paper takes questionnaire survey to part of young residents, and we find daily consumer prices, oil price, the past prices and trends, money supply, level of economic development, housing price and official information disclosure are important factors effecting consumers? inflation expectation. Further, we conduct the logistic model based on the survey data. It shows that inflation expectation level and stickiness of the respondents are not very significant in demography sense of heterogeneity, but to the belief of central bank?s credibility, gender gap is quite significant. Finally, we make several pointed references of managing the