城市埋地燃气管网安全性评价体系的研究-供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程专业论文.docx

Classified Index：TU996.7(6) U.D.C.: 620 Dissertation for the Master Degree in Engineering A SAFETY ASSESSMENT SYSTEM OF UNDERGROUND CITY GAS PIPELINES Candidate： Liu yang Supervisor： Prof. Duan Changgui Associate Supervisor: Senior Engineer Fan Jinsheng Associate Reaseacher Nie Tingzhe Academic Degree Applied for: Master of Engineering Speciality： Heating, Gas Supplying, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning Engineering Affiliation： Shenzhen Graduate School Date of Defence： Dec, 2006 Degree-Conferring-Institution： Harbin Institute of Technology 摘 要 随着城市建设的日新月异，人口的逐渐增加，城市燃气输配系统也在不 断的发展。但是其安全运行问题日益突出，事故常有发生。城市埋地燃气管 网的安全性评价是近年来在国内发展起来的一项安全评价管理工作。 本文针对我国城市埋地燃气管网的特点，建立了城市埋地燃气管网安全 评价体系。首先采用事故树分析、专家调查法和模糊综合评价法进行了城市 埋地燃气管网的系统安全评价。建立了城市埋地燃气管网各子系统的事故 树，并且根据事故树分析理论得出埋地燃气管网的故障模式。针对底事件的 不确定性，采用模糊数学理论，建立隶属函数，对底事件进行模糊化处理。 接着采用事故树分析得到城市埋地燃气管网各子系统的风险概率，继而运用 专家调杳法和模糊综合评价方法评价城市埋地燃气管网的安全性。最后还以 本人实习的公司——“中国燃气控股有限公司”下属两个项目公司为例，用模 糊综合评价法对这两个公司埋地管网的安全性进行评价，并且在以往的模糊 综合评价中增加了专家权重的新型计算方法，进而分别得到两个城市埋地管 网的安全评价结果。最后还对两个城市埋地管网的可靠性进行了比较。 本文得出一套完整的城市埋地燃气管网安全评价体系，此体系不仅可以 达到对城市埋地燃气管网安全性评价的目的，而且可以进行不同城市、不同 区域埋地燃气管网的安全性比较。 关键词 城市燃气；安全性评价；事故树分析；专家调查法； 模糊综合评价 Abstract With city’s rapid development, its population is increasing day by day. City gas transmission and distribution system (CGTDS) is also developing. But some undesirable accidents have happened between whiles. Safety Assessment of underground city gas pipeline is a new pattern of safety management technology in recent years. This paper sets up a safety assessment system of underground city gas pipeline in allusion to the characteristic of underground city gas pipeline. Firstly, fault tree analysis, expert inquiry method and fuzzy colligation assessment method is applied in safety assessment of underground city gas pipeline. By using fault tree analysis, the fault tree of underground city gas pipeline is formed. Because of uncertainty of base events, expert inquiry method is applied to calculating the probability of these base events, and botto