乐亭县电网中长期电力负荷预测的研究-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 电力负荷预测是电力系统研究的重要工作之一，预测水平的高低已成为衡量电 力企业管理是否走向现代化的重要标志之一。中长期电力系统负荷预测作为电网规 划的基础，其预测的准确性直接关系统到未来电网规划建设合理性、关系到电网运 行安全稳定性，从而对保证社会的正常生产、生活以及企业的经济、社会效益等产 生重要影响。本文主要研究内容如下： ⑴研究了负荷预测研究背景、意义、现状；通过文献法对国内外电力负荷预测 模型及常用预测方法进行了详细研究。结合乐亭县经济及电力发展状况，收集并整 理了乐亭县负荷预测所需的基础数据，确定了基于人均用电量法、产值单耗法、电 力弹性系数法的电力负荷预测方法。 ⑵分析了乐亭县负荷类型、结构分布、负荷增长趋势、负荷特性及电力需求影 响因素。利用 SPSS11.5 软件及 EXCEL 软件对收集的乐亭县负荷预测的基础数据进 行数据统计及处理。并以数据统计分析结果作为主要依据，分析了负荷的类型、结 构分布、负荷增长趋势、在不同季节的典型日的时序特性、不同负荷的负荷增长趋 势及电力需求影响因素。 ⑶提出了适合乐亭县电力负荷中长期预测模型及预测的经典预测方法。结合乐 亭地区 1990-2012 年的历史负荷数据及经济发展状况，基于人均用电量法、产值单 耗法、电力弹性系数法对乐亭地区中长期负荷预测进行了研究，并对预测结果进行 了比较分析，提出了适用于乐亭县中长期负荷预测的经典预测方法。 关键词：中长期负荷预测；负荷特性；时序特性；配电网规划 II Abstract As one of the important work of power system, load forecasting levels forecasting is one of the measures of modernization of power system management. The accuracy of medium and long-term load forecasting, which is the basis of electric power system planning, is directly related to the rationality of planning and construction, the security and stabilit of operation of power network, and thus make a significant impact on the social life, productive labor, economic efficiency and social efficiency of an enterprise and other aspects of the people. The main research works and achievements of this paper include: Firstly, this paper introduces the research background, significance and the present research conditions about the load forecasting, and investigates the economic and electric power development of LeTing region. Some load forecasting model and common method for load forecasting are analyzed and discussed in this thesis by the study of literature and comprehensive analysis. Combined with the economic and electric power development of LeTing region, the original data required for the medium and long-term load forecasting are collected and organized. According to my theoretical learning and LeTing economic and power development strategic plan, the load forecasting method adopts th