陆岛水上客运发展研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

陆岛水上客运发展研究摘 陆岛水上客运发展研究 摘 要 随着沿海岛屿的开放开发，一系列沟通陆岛两地的陆路通道纷纷 在建。在陆路通道建成前后，势必会给传统的陆岛水上客运造成一定 的影响，主要表现在：首先，陆路通道建成前，由于岛屿地区的经济 建设和产业发展对陆岛交通运输的需求将不断加大，这将进一步加重 陆岛水上客运的负荷。其次，陆路通道建成后，又会造成陆岛水上客 流量的分流，给陆岛水上客运带来一定的冲击。针对上述影响，为了 确保陆路通道建成前后陆岛客运交通的顺利衔接，实现陆岛水上客运 持续、稳定地发展，本文着重对陆岛水上客运发展演变趋势，陆岛水 上客运发展对策进行了系统深入的研究。其主要成果如下： 1、结合陆岛水上客运交通系统的特点，从理论上分析比较了回归 分析法、指数平滑法和灰色预测法的技术特性，选定灰色预测法作为 陆岛交通客流量的预测方法，并应用于陆岛水上客流量的预测。 2、在OD调查的基础上，运用过江路径成本．时间分析法研究了陆 路通道建成后对陆岛水上客流量的分流影响；并运用马尔柯夫链分析 法进一步研究了这种分流影响的稳定状态。 3、在上述研究的基础上，对陆岛水上客运发展阶段特征进行了研 究分析，并从理论上进行了阶段划分。 4、最后，提出了陆岛水上客运发展的对策，一是通过实现供需平 衡，二是通过提高竞争力，实现陆岛水上客运稳定、持续地发展。 本文的研究对今后解决类似问题具有一定的参考价值。 关键词：陆岛交通，水上客运，发展对策 陆岛水上客运发展研究ABSTRACT 陆岛水上客运发展研究 ABSTRACT With the development of the coastal islands。lots of land passages between mainland and island，such as bridges and tunnels are under construction，which influences the traditional waterway passenger transport．Fi rstly，before the land passage is completed， the burden of the waterway passenger transport gets heavier since the demand of the transport between mainland and island keeps increasing with the development of the economy and industry in island．Secondly，after the land passage is completed．the shunt of the passenger flow takes place because the land passage attracts part of the passengers who come-and—go between mainland and island．This brings the waterway passenger transport a strike．In o rde r to make the traditional waterway passenger transport keep developing stably，this dissertation makes focus on the passenger flow and analyzes the trend of the waterway passenger transport development，it also discusses the subject of how to realize the stable development of the waterway passenger transport between mainland and is Jand．The main research results are as foIIows： Firstly，according to the character of the waterway passenger transport system，it makes comparison between regression analysis exponential smoothing and gray prediction，and applies the gray model to predict the waterway passenger flow between mainland a