人民币升值对中美贸易差额影响实证探究.docxVIP

人民币升值对中美贸易差额影响实证探究 摘要：近年来，人民币升值影响了全球经济的神 经。实证研究人民币是否被低估，并进行了详细的分析是人 民币问题影响到美国经济衰退。为了最大化研究人民币升值 的后果，我们更使用月度数据而不是年度数据。考虑到中国 和美国的实际情况，我们还利用VAR模型检验了人民币升值 的迹象，发现在长期两者不存在任何因果关系。 关键词：中美贸易；人民币升值；VAR 中图分类号：F74文献标志码：A文章编号：1673-291X (2013) 13-0233-03 一、Introduction Two years ago, the US Senate passed “Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011”，the debate about exchange rate between China and US becomes hot again.In recent years, the United States frequently puts pressure on China by the exchange rate issue? Since a series of currencies measures were implemented from 2005, the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate decreased from 8. 27 to 6. 29, and pushed up the RMB still further? They argue that the US in Sino-US trade deficit may be reduced if the RMB appreciate, so they force the RMB to appreciate. This article would not only find the rela ti onship bet ween the Sino-US t rade balance and the RMB exchange rate fluctuation, but also discuss how the exchange rates impact our country，s import and export trade .At last, some views about the dispute of Sino-US exchange rate are presented. 二、The lit era ture review In the 1930s, Abba Lerner states tha/t if the current account is initially zero, a real currency depreciation causes a current account surplus if the sum of the relative price elasticities of export and import demand exceeds 1. If the current account is not zero initially, the condition becomes substantially more complex, then the external devaluation of the national currency will certainly be able to improve its trade balance of payments , which is the famous ^Marshal1-Lerner condition” .After the 1980s, economists increasingly note the problem of exchange rate pass-through, forming the theory of incomplete exchange rate pass-through. As well as the changes in a national income, currency devaluation can improve the trade balanee conditions, and devaluation caused more than national income to increase exports, which is called Lawson - Metzler effect. If we