提高政策效率：影响评估的作用.ppt

Dealing with selection bias如何处理选择偏误 Need to use experimental or quasi-experimental methods to cope with this; this is what has been meant by rigorous impact evaluation 需要用试验法或准试验法处理这个偏误; 这就是严格影响评估所要求的 Experimental (randomized control trials = RCTs, commonly used in agricultural research and medical trials, but are more widely applicable) 试验法 (随机控制试验 = RCTs, 通常被应用于农业研究和医学实验，但其适用范围可以更广) Quasi-experimental 准试验方法 Propensity score matching倾向得分匹配法 Regression discontinuity断点回归法 Pipeline approach流水线方法 Regressions (including instrumental variables)回归法 (包含工具变量) Randomization (RCTs)随机控制试验 (RCTs) Randomization addresses the problem of selection bias by the random allocation of the treatment 随机选择通过随机分配处理解决了选择偏误的问题 Randomization may not be at the same level as the unit of intervention 随机选择可能并不是在干预对象的同一水平进行 Randomize across schools but measure individual learning outcomes 随机选择学校，但是度量的是个人的学习成绩 Randomize across sub-districts but measure village-level outcomes 随机选择地区，但度量的是村级水平的结果变量 Randomization (RCTs)随机控制试验 (RCTs) The less units over which you randomize the higher your standard errors 随机选择的对象越少（对象层级越高），你的标准误就越大 But you need to randomize across a ‘reasonable number’ of units 但你需要对“合理数量”的单位进行随机选择 At least 30 for simple randomized design (though possible imbalance considered a problem for n 200) 简单随机设计至少需要30个样本 (尽管认为n 200时可能有失衡的问题) Can be as few as 10 for matched pair randomization 对于配对的随机试验样本可以少到10个 Issues in randomization随机选择中的问题 Randomize across eligible population not whole population 随机选择的对象是符合要求的群体，而不是整个总体 Can randomize across the pipeline 随机选择可以贯穿整个选择过程 Is no less unethical than any other method with a control group (perhaps more ethical), and any intervention which is not immediately universal in coverage has an untreated population to act as a potential control group 随机控制试验并不会比其他使用控制组的方法少面临一些道德问题 (或许还要更多), 任何不打算立即全面实施的干预都需要一个没有接受干预的总体作为控制组 No more costly than other survey-based approaches 随机控制试验不会比其他以调查为基础的方法花费更多 Conducting an RCT进行随机控制试验 Has to