【食品饮料-研报】瑞信-亚太地区-零售行业-澳大利亚零售业：新常态及其对食品和家庭用品支出的影响-2020.12.11-30页.pdfVIP

11 December 2020 Equity Research Asia Pacific | Australia Australian Retail Sector The new normal and its implications for food and household goods expenditure Retailing | Sector Forecast In our view, the market is too bearish on household goods and food expenditure in FY22. A Research Analysts permanent shift to work from home is likely to provide a step change in expenditure. Additionally, under-spending on travel and a substantial savings buffer provide considerable downside Grant Saligari support for spending. We upgrade forecasts and target prices for JBH, HVN and WES. We 61 3 9280 1720 upgrade JBH to OUTPERFORM (prev. Neutral). grant.saligari@ With research (PWC, Global Workplace Analytics) showing that a significant proportion of Annabelle Diamond the population could work from home on a regular basis and that there are material cost 61 3 9280 1837 savings for employers and employees, work from home could be one of the more annabelle.diamond@ fundamental and enduring changes arising from COVID- 19. On the basis of 30% of the Australian workforce working from home two days per week, we estimate a 4ppt direct and 3ppt indirect increase to furniture and electrical retail (US studies indicate circa 50% of employees could potentially work from home on a regular basis). Food retail is also likely to benefit from additional expenditure on food, cleaning and hygiene products. We estimate a 2.5% permanent increase to food retail as a result of work from home. Savings and an incomplete recovery in international travel expenditure are also likely to smooth the path for retail in FY22. In our view, the market is significan