利率市场化对国际资本流入的研究——基于十年期国债收益率与FDI的实证研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 17 利率市场化对国际资本流入的研究 ——基于十年期国债收益率与FDI的实证研究 摘要：进入21世纪后，国际资本的大规模跨境流动成为世界经济发展的显著特征，大量的国际资本向新兴市场国家输入。中国作为世界上最大的新兴经济体，改革开放之后，其经济逐年飞速发展，投资环境也随着改革的深化不断改善，也因此我国成为国际资本流入的主要市场，这也影响了我国的国际收支状况。大规模的外资涌入，一方面促进了我国经济的发展，另一方面也带来一些负面效应。例如大量的外资涌入造就我国国际收支长期双顺差，这也促成了人民币的升值压力，大大影响了我国货币政策的有效性。 由于我国又正处于利率市场化的重要阶段，为了探究利率政策的放开是否会影响国际资本流入的规律，有何影响，本文以理论研究结合实证研究、定性分析结合定量分析的方法进行了分析，主要选取了2004－2014年期间的相关月度数据，采用“中国人民银行完全放开了人民币贷款利率的管制”（2013年7月）作为利率市场化的一个重要节点。通过运用现代的计量经济学方法进行数据分析，来研究2013年7月前后利率与国际资本流入相关性的变化。结果显示，在人民币贷款利率放开前后，十年期国债收益率对FDI流入均为无显著相关性。 关键词：短期资本流动利率市场化相关性分析 Interest rate marketization of the study of international capital inflows ——Based on the research on 10-year Treasury yields and FDI Abstract: In the 21st century world economic development is the most notable features of large-scale cross-border flow of international capital,?many emerging market countries have become the international capital importer. China as the biggest developing country, with the rapid growth of the economy and the continuous improvement of investment environment, a large amount of foreign capitals begin to enter Chinese market,?to our countrys?international balance of payments had a profound effect. Mass influx of foreign capital, to a certain extent, promotes the economic development of China, but also brings many negative effects.?It leads to Chinas long-term?double surplus of balance of payments, also caused the pressure of appreciation,?and influences the effectiveness of monetary policy in our country. Because our country is in the crucial stage of interest rate marketization, in order to explore the liberalization of interest rate policy whether can affect the rule of international capital inflows, in this paper, according to the mutual combination of theoretical research and empirical research, I qualitatively analysis the combined method. I mainly chose the related data during 2004-2014 and established the mathematical model, using the modern econometric method of data analysis. Using comple