我国养老保险的财务可持续性研究——基于人口老龄化的视角.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 18 我国养老保险的财务可持续性研究 ——基于人口老龄化的视角 摘要：改革开放20多年来，我国社会保障制度在不断完善与发展，2011年《社会保险法》也对社会保障制度提出了可持续发展的要求。但随着全球经济增长缓慢以及人口老龄化的背景下，我国基本养老保险财务可持续性发展面临着巨大的压力与挑战。本文通过分析我国人口老龄化的现状以及城镇企业职工的基本财务状况，建立精算模型预测我国基本养老保险的未来收支状况和累计结余。预测结果表明，若继续按照现行的养老制度运行，2035年左右我国养老保险将面临赤字。本文认为可以从延迟退休年龄、建立弹性而灵活的退休制度、扩大养老保险覆盖面发展企业年金以提高养老金替代率等多方面着手，将有助于养老保险未来财务的可持续性发展。 关键词：养老保险；财务可持续；人口老龄化；精算模型； Studies on the Financial Sustainability of Social Pension System in China—Analysis Based on Aging of Population Abstract: It’s has been more than 20 years since reform and opening up, the social security system of china is in the continuous improvement and development .In 2011, ‘The social insurance law of the peoples Republic of China’ sets forth requirements for sustainable developmenton the social security system. But with the slow growth of the global economy as well as the background of aging of population, Chinas social endowment insurance financial sustainability is facing tremendous pressure and challenges. By analyzing the current situation and trend of the agingpopulation and establishing an actuarial model to predict the future balance of payments situation of social endowment insurance and cumulative balances. The prediction results show that, if we continues to run the current pension system, we would face a deficit of pension insurance in future. This paper argues that from the delay retirement age, build resilient and flexible retirement system, expanding pension coverage in order to improve the development of enterprise annuity pension replacement rate and other multi-pronged approach will help the financial sustainability of pension finance. Keywords: Social Pension System;Financial Sustainability;Aging of Population;Actuarial Models; 一、引言 社会养老保障体系在整个社会保障制度体系中占据核心地位。目前，由于世界各国经济增长缓慢，同时伴随着出生率的下降和人口平均预期寿命的延长，各个国家都面临着日趋严重的人口老龄化问题，养老保险体系的可持续性发展面临着巨大挑战，中国也不例外。中国的人口老龄化速度远超于其他国家。在发达国家，人口老龄化通常是伴随着工业化、城市化以及现代化而到来，属于“先富后老”状态，但中国却是经济处于发展中国家水平时，人口老龄化就已经到来，属于“未富先老”的状态。随着人口老龄化的速度加快，老年人口总量不断增加，领取养老金的人数也每年