急诊病人压力性损伤风险预测模型的构建与验证.pdfVIP

护理研究2025年1月第39卷第2期（总第766期）·197·

·科研论著·

急诊病人压力性损伤风险预测模型的构建

与验证

吕虹蕾，岳晨琪，幺颖，高宁，柴倩文，路明惠，魏力*

天津医科大学总医院，天津300052

Constructionandvalidationofariskpredictionmodelforpressureinjuryinemergencypatients

LYUHonglei,YUEChenqi,YAOYing,GAONing,CHAIQianwen,LUMinghui,WEILi*

TianjinMedicalUniversityGeneralHospital,Tianjin300052China

*CorrespondingAuthorWEILi,E⁃mail:weili066100@126.com

AbstractObjective：Toconstructariskpredictionmodelforpressureinjuryinemergencypatientsandverifythepredictiveeffectivenessof

themodel.Methods：Atotalof312emergencypatientsadmittedtoatertiarygradeAhospitalinTianjinwasselectedastheresearch

subjectsbyconveniencesamplingmethodfromMay2022toMarch2023.Thepatientsweredividedintomodelinggroupandvalidation

groupinratioof7∶3，with218patientsinthemodelinggroupand94patientsinthevalidationgroup.Asurveyquestionnaireontheinfluencing

factorsofpressureinjuryinemergencypatientswasformedthroughliteraturereview，groupdiscussions，andexpertinquiriestoinvestigatethe

patients.Basedontheinfluencingfactors，apredictivemodelwasconstructed，thenthemodelwasvalidated.Results：Among312emergency

patients，28patientsdevelopedpressureinjuries，withthetotalincidencerateof8.97%.Theresultsofmultiplefactoranalysisshowed

thatserumalbuminlevels，incontinencestatus，perceptualability，andmobilityabilityweretheinfluencingfactorsforpressureinjuryin

emergencypatients（P0.05）.Basedontheinfluencingfactors，apredictionmodelwasconstructed.TheHosmer-Lemeshowfittingtest

2

resultsshowedthatχ=4.648（P=0.590），theareaunderthecurve（AUC）ofreceiveroperatorcharacteristicofthemodelinggroupwas

0.946［95%CI（0.9