2026-27 经济展望：突破边界.pptxVIP

Economicoutlook2026-27:Stretching

thelimits

17December2025

Content

4

ExecutiveSummary

9

Globaloutlook:Exceedingpreviousexpectationsbutdownsiderisksremain

12

Inflationandcentralbanks:divergenceahead

14

Developedmarkets:runningontwospeeds

16

Emergingmarkets:selectivityafterayearofrally

19

Corporates:Earningstocontinuetogrowamidfragmentationandcapexdivergence

28

Capitalmarketsoutlook:Resiliencedespitelate-cycleconditions

AllianzResearch

2

•GlobalGDPgrowthremainsstrong...fornow.Itisexpectedtoreach

+2.9%in2026and+2.8%in2027,followingarobust+3%in2025.Carryovergrowthfromastrong2025intheUSandChina,aswellassustained

momentuminthefaceofdisruptions,accountforovertwo-thirdsoftheupwardrevisioncomparedtolastquarter.

•TheUSeconomyisincreasinglyrunningontwospeeds.Theimpactofthetradewarhasbeenmilder,atjust-0.6ppin2025vs-1.6ppestimatedinQ2.Thisimprovementisduetoreducedtariffs(to11%effectivefrom

27%announcedon2April)throughsectorexclusionsandstrategictradedealswithkeypartners.Additionally,theinformationandcommunicationsector,includingAI,hasfueledmorethanhalfofUSGDPgrowthin2025,contributingasubstantial+1.1pp,andthistrendisexpectedtocontinuein

2026.Wehaverevisedontheupsideourforecastfor2026to+2.5%onthebackofamoreresilientconsumer,ahighercreditimpulseandthepositiveimpactofAI.

•China’sexportgrowthremainsthefront-runner–despitethetradewar!Growthhasexceededexpectations,buoyedbystronger-than-anticipatedexternaldemand(andsoftimports).ThissurgewasdrivenbyfrontloadingfromtheUSinthefirsthalfoftheyear,strategicreroutingtocircumvent

tariffs,expandingmarketsharesintherestoftheworld,aweakercurrencyandcompetitiveprices.Meanwhile,domesticdemandstillstruggles

torecoversustain